Australian dairy trade weakens in July

Australian dairy exports were weak in July, declining by 5.63%, or 12.2 million kilo LME, compared with July 2025.Most product volumes decreased during the month, with whey, lactose, and butter oil being the exceptions. Overall commodity volume declined by 5.63%, equivalent to 12.2 million kilo LME. Australian dairy exports July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 12,169 11,738 -431 -3.54% WMP 3,845 3,079 -766 -19.92% Whey 1,014 1,339 325 32.05% I/F 1,462 1,305 -157 -10.74% Lactose 244 254 10 4.10% Butter 951 540 -411 -43.22% Butter Oil 249 400 151 60.64% Cheese 12,956 12,578 -378 -2.92% Milk 13,399 11,568 -1,831 -13.67% Total 46,289 42,801 -3,488 -7.54% Year-to-date (YTD) July data dropped by 7.06% compared with YTD July 2025, equivalent to a decline of 111 million kilo LME. In terms of commodity tonnage exported, volumes decreased by 7.54%, or 3,488 tons. Most product categories recorded lower YTD volumes, with whey, lactose, and milk being the exceptions. Australian dairy exports YTD July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 87,021 81,919 -5,102 -5.86% WMP 29,237 20,144 -9,093 -31.10% Whey 9,709 12,539 2,830 29.15% I/F 9,315 9,060 -255 -2.74% Lactose 2,360 3,947 1,587 67.25% Butter 5,572 3,787 -1,785 -32.04% Butter Oil 2,592 2,419 -173 -6.67% Cheese 97,984 92,040 -5,944 -6.07% Milk 69,701 71,754 2,053 2.95% Total 313,491 297,609 -1,480 -5.60% Milk production has performed well this year and currently stands 4.20%, or 144 million kilo, above the previous year on a YTD June basis. Australia milk production - Kilograms Month 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% January 708,200,000 718,800,000 10,600,000 1.50% February 572,400,000 575,600,000 3,200,000 0.56% March 595,900,000 612,300,000 16,400,000 2.75% April 594,000,000 618,300,000 24,300,000 4.09% May 620,342,000 654,041,000 33,699,000 5.43% Total 3,090,842,000 3,179,041,000 88,199,000 2.85% Improved weather conditions across several dairy regions, combined with stronger farm margins, have supported higher milk flows throughout the year. Growth was particularly strong during the second quarter. However, El Niño could negatively affect milk production in the coming months.Due to a higher Australian milk production throughout the year, imports declined in July by 5.63%, or 12.2 million kilo LME. In contrast, overall commodity volume increased by 3.53%, or 640 tons. Most individual commodity volumes decreased, with cheese and butter being the exceptions. Australian dairy imports July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 975 813 -162 -16.62% WMP 3,594 2,548 -1,046 -29.10% Whey 874 784 -90 -10.30% Cheese 9,199 10,354 1,155 12.56% Butter 2,516 3,303 787 31.28% Butter Oil 956 952 -4 -0.42% Total 18,114 18,754 640 3.53% YTD July trade data weakened considerably compared with the previous month's position, moving from an increase of 7.89%, or 47 million kilo LME, in YTD June to a decline of 7.06%, or 111 million kilo LME, in YTD July. Australian dairy imports YTD July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 6,480 6,923 443 6.84% WMP 20,944 19,657 -1,287 -6.14% Whey 5,338 4,574 -764 -14.31% Cheese 64,698 66,870 2,172 3.36% Butter 16,565 24,878 8,313 50.18% Butter Oil 6,735 6,201 -534 -7.93% Total 120,760 129,103 8,343 6.91% Across individual commodities, the number of product categories recording higher volumes was broadly balanced by those recording lower volumes.Overall, Australia's milk production remained positive through YTD July, while trade volumes showed a weaker trend. Looking ahead, the potential impact of El Niño remains an important risk to Australian milk production.