From potato surplus to a shortage of 3 million tons

The potato market in the EU-4 had to absorb a surplus of 3 million tonnes last season. This year, the balance suddenly shifts to a shortage of 3 million tonnes. Various estimates indicate that this year’s harvest of ware potatoes in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany will remain below 21 million tonnes. That means production is 6 to 6.5 million tonnes smaller than a year ago. It amounts to a yield reduction of about 23%. Statistics service Agreste of the French Ministry of Agriculture has just further lowered its figures for potato production in France. Instead of a tight 40 tonnes per hectare, the French now expect 37.4 tonnes per hectare. Drought and especially heat have hit the crops harder than was assumed in earlier estimates. In the most important growing area Nord-Pas-de-Calais in the northwest, the yield is even below the national average at 37 tonnes. In that area, 53.100 hectares of ware potatoes are grown. That brings production there to less than 2 million tonnes. Compared with last year, Agreste expects almost 700.000 tonnes fewer potatoes in this area. In Picardie – also part of Hauts-de-France and France’s second potato region – the statistics service also sees the harvest shrinking by 700.000 tonnes. A yield of about 39 tonnes per hectare is expected there. Last year it was nearly 46 tonnes per hectare. Across France, the harvest remains stuck at 6.2 million tonnes, no less than 2.1 million tonnes less than last year. Sharp decline in Germany too France is not alone. Potato production for consumption in Germany is also shrinking by about 2 million tonnes. Both the area and the yield per hectare this year fall well short of last year’s large production. At about 40 tonnes per hectare, the ware potato harvest in Germany comes to 7.8 million tonnes. Belgian potato growers may be facing the largest drop in yield. They are expected to reach 38.5 tonnes per hectare this year. That is 6.5 tonnes, or almost 15%, less than last year. Total production there falls to less than 3.5 million tonnes. If all those potatoes were to go to the factory, even then half of the processing lines would remain unused, because capacity in Belgium amounts to about 7 million tonnes. In recent years, about 6 million tonnes of that was used. That means Belgium is more dependent than in previous years on imports of potatoes. In the Netherlands, this summer’s drought and heat seem to have had less impact than in neighboring countries. That while in the south of the country very low yields are also expected. For now, the national expectation is for a harvest of just under 46 tonnes per hectare. That means the difference with last year remains limited to less than 5 tonnes. In neighboring countries, the gap is 6 to 6.5 tonnes per hectare. Just below 21 million tonnes To complete the picture: based on these expectations, the total harvest in the EU-4 comes to just below 21 million tons. Last year the harvest in these countries was 27.3 million tonnes. The average yield then was 45.3 tonnes per hectare, compared with an expected 39.7 tonnes this year. Last year’s abundant harvest proved far too large for the market. Also because demand for fries in distant destinations took a big hit as a result of increasing competition. Estimates assume that the surplus amounted to about 3 to 3.5 million tonnes. This year production is 6 to 6.5 million tonnes smaller than last year. That does not mean there is immediately a shortage of that size. Last season ended with sharply falling prices. Compared with the estimated surplus of 3 to 3.5 million tonnes last season, the current production decline does point to a considerably tighter market balance. Smaller harvest in Poland and Great Britain In Poland and Great Britain too, fewer potatoes are coming out of the ground this year than last year. In Great Britain it was also extremely dry, but based on the first signals a harvest of 4.6 million tonnes is still expected there. That would make it the smallest, or nearly the smallest, harvest in more than ten years. In 2023 production remained stuck at 4.66 million tonnes. Compared with last year, the harvest seems likely to be about 1 million tonnes lower due to a sharp contraction in the area planted. Last year, Poland, like the EU-4, had a very abundant harvest. At 7 million tonnes, production was 1 million tonnes too large for the market. In July, a normal amount of rain fell in Poland, but the distribution was such that lower yields are still being recorded in many areas. Large differences In a band from the northwest to the southeast of Poland, yields are highest. In Wielkopolskie, the region with the most potatoes, the yield expectations are highest. According to calculations using satellite data, 39 tonnes per hectare could be harvested there this year. On the other hand, there are smaller areas where growers have to make do with less than 20 tonnes per hectare. In most areas, the harvest expectation fluctuates around 30 tonnes per hectare. Based on just above that, production for this year comes out slightly higher than 6 million tonnes. That means 1 million tonnes less than last year. Why also highlight Poland and the United Kingdom alongside the EU-4? Together, the six countries account for about two thirds of total potato production in the European Union and Great Britain. In this large potato bloc, production this year is more than 8 million tonnes lower than last year. In the six countries, production comes to just under 31.7 million tonnes, compared with almost 40 million tonnes last year. The biggest effects of area reduction, drought and heat have been felt in the potato heartland of the EU, with a production decline of 23%. In the large countries just outside it, the effects are somewhat smaller, but with production declines of around 15% the downturn there is also considerable. One point to note is that the figures in Poland and Great Britain relate to the total potato harvest, while the EU-4 figures are based purely on the ware potato harvest.