US milk production expands despite record July heat

US milk production continued to expand in July despite the country experiencing its warmest month on record, with herd growth remaining the main driver. Wisconsin and Texas led production gains, while Kansas recorded the strongest percentage growth. Meanwhile, lower yields weighed on production in California, the country’s largest milk-producing state.Unlike Europe, where the warm summer has put pressure on milk production, the US continued to expand its milk output despite high temperatures. According to NOAA, July was the warmest month on record (1895–present), with temperatures averaging 1.8°C above the 20th-century average and daytime highs averaging 32°C. Despite these conditions, milk production across the 24 selected states reached 8.80 million tons, up 2.3% year-over-year (YoY). Growth remained primarily supported by the expanding dairy herd, while milk yields provided only marginal additional support.Wisconsin posted the largest absolute growth in milk production, rising by 2.6% to 1.29 million tons. Texas followed with a 4.4% increase to 731,192 tons, while Kansas recorded the largest percentage growth, rising by 15.4% to 224,075 tons. The three states contributed an additional 93,400 tons to US milk output, accounting for almost half of the total increase. Most other states also reported gains, with declines limited to California (-0.8%), Washington (-2%) and Ohio (-0.4%).The dairy herd continued to expand, increasing by 2% YoY to 9.27 million head. Kansas recorded the strongest herd growth at 15%, followed by South Dakota (+6.8%) and Oregon (+6.7%). Among the larger producing states, Texas increased its herd by 3.7%, while Wisconsin added 27,000 cows. Cow numbers declined in California (-0.1%), Pennsylvania (-1.1%), Ohio (-0.4%) and Washington (-1.7%).Milk yields remained stable, increasing by only 0.2% YoY from 2,088 to 2,093 pounds per cow, equivalent to around 0.95 tons per head. California, the largest milk-producing state, stood out from this trend, recording the largest decline in yields, down 0.7%. This suggests that its 0.8% decline in production was mainly driven by lower yields, as the dairy herd contracted by only 0.1%. At the same time, farmgate milk prices took a step back to $21.10 per hundredweight (cwt) in June, declining by 0.9% both compared with the previous month and year. Despite lower prices, the dairy herd continued to expand and milk production remained firmly above last year. Looking ahead, weather conditions remain a potential risk, with NOAA forecasting above-average temperatures across the central and southern US in August, particularly in parts of coastal California and the southern Plains.