What is keeping mozzarella ahead in the cheese market?

Mozzarella has remained more resilient despite broader pressure on cheese prices, supported by seasonal demand and trade. Growing European and international trade is absorbing higher volumes, while investment in processing capacity is strengthening mozzarella’s role within the European cheese market.According to DCA Market Intelligence, the mozzarella benchmark closed at €3,485 per ton on August 6, a decline of 12.9% year-over-year (YoY). Higher milk availability following the second peak in milk production weighed on European cheese prices throughout 2025, with mozzarella declining 35.9%, from a peak of €4,360 per ton in March to a low of €2,795 per ton in October.Mozzarella nevertheless proved more resilient than other benchmark cheeses. Prices remained highly correlated with Gouda (97.8%), Edam (97.8%) and cheddar curd (91.4%), but the annual decline was considerably smaller at 12.9%, compared with 18.6% to 24.1% for the other benchmarks. This divergence became more visible in 2026, as firmer seasonal demand and mozzarella’s fresh production cycle supported prices, with mozzarella trading above Gouda and cheddar curd since week 19.Ample milk availability supports mozzarella supply Milk supply has not been a constraint for mozzarella production, with collections remaining above last year’s levels across the main producing countries. As of June 2026, Germany increased milk collections to 17.3 million tons (+6.5% YoY), followed by the Netherlands at 7.3 million tons (+5.8%) and Italy at 7.2 million tons (+3.7%). Ireland reached 4.9 million tons (+1.3%), Denmark 2.9 million tons (+2.6%), while Belgium recorded the strongest growth, increasing 10.7% to 2.5 million tons.Higher milk availability was also reflected in cheese production, with output increasing in Germany (+4.5% YoY), Belgium (+7.3%) and Denmark (+1.5%) as of May 2026. Dutch production was also higher, increasing by 2.7% YoY as of April, while Italian cheese production remained broadly unchanged.Although official mozzarella production statistics remain limited, available indicators point to expanding supply. Germany’s Pasta Filata production reached 160,574 tons YTD April, up 3.3%. In Italy, where buffalo-milk mozzarella represents an important segment, Mozzarella di Bufala Campana PDO output increased by 2.3% in the first half of 2026 and followed a clear seasonal pattern, rising from 3.6 thousand tons in February to 6.7 thousand tons in June.European demand absorbs higher mozzarella volumes Mozzarella is primarily traded within the EU, where trade continued to expand during the first four months of 2026. Intra-EU exports reached 238,153 tons, up 16.2% YoY, more than three times the 77,777 tons shipped outside the bloc. Despite higher volumes, intra-EU trade value declined by 0.9% to €959.5 million, reflecting lower mozzarella prices. Germany remained the largest supplier, increasing exports by 24% to 77,177 tons. Italy followed with 36,778 tons (+5.4%), while Belgium and the Netherlands exported 33,480 tons (+10.9%) and 27,734 tons (+7.6%), respectively. The strongest increase came from Ireland, where shipments almost doubled to 23,289 tons (+87.5%). Denmark was the main exception, with intra-EU exports declining by 19.3% to 13,881 tons.Denmark leads mozzarella exports beyond the EU Extra-EU mozzarella exports reached 77,777 tons during the first four months of 2026, up 6.9% YoY, while trade value declined by 12.8% to €303.8 million. Denmark remained the largest exporter, increasing shipments by 10.7% to 29,054 tons, suggesting that part of the decline in intra-EU trade was redirected towards international markets. Ireland also expanded extra-EU exports by 36.1%, alongside growth from Germany (+5.9%), Belgium (+9.7%) and Poland (+92.0%), while Italy's shipments declined by 7.8% to 11,039 tons.Denmark's strong position is closely linked to its export-oriented dairy industry. A strong milk supply relative to domestic demand has supported investment in specialized processing capacity, including Arla's mozzarella facilities at Branderup and Rødkærsbro. With production largely oriented towards mozzarella for foodservice, Denmark has developed a strong presence in markets outside the EU.This positioning is also visible in export prices. Danish extra-EU values declined to €3.62 per kilo in May 2026, while Belgium recorded a stronger correction to €3.11 per kilo. Italy remained considerably higher at €6.07 per kilo, partly reflecting its different mozzarella product mix, including higher-value buffalo mozzarella. UK leads demand while Asian markets expand The United Kingdom remained the largest destination for European mozzarella, with imports increasing by 13% YTD April to 27,627 tons. South Korea followed despite a 9.5% decline to 15,111 tons, while Japan increased imports by 9.4% to 6,935 tons. Together, these three markets accounted for 64% of the EU's extra-EU mozzarella exports.Growth was strongest in other Asian markets. Shipments to Taiwan increased by 56.8%, followed by China (+41.5%) and the Philippines (+24.2%). Outside Asia, imports increased in Libya (+15.1%), while shipments to Saudi Arabia (-26.7%), Jordan (-46.2%) and the Dominican Republic (-26.3%) declined.Asian markets provide a growing outlet for European mozzarella, although competition from New Zealand, Australia and the US remains strong. The close alignment between DCA MI and GDT mozzarella prices also suggests that the recent price correction has been broader than Europe alone.Mozzarella gains strategic importance in Ireland Ireland has rapidly expanded mozzarella exports, with shipments increasing from 26,443 tons in 2024 to 84,386 tons in 2025 (+219%). As a result, mozzarella's share of total Irish cheese exports rose from 9% to 25%, making it one of the country's fastest-growing dairy export products. The trend has continued into 2026, with mozzarella accounting for 23–41% of monthly total cheese exports during the first four months of the year.The expansion reflects a strategic shift within the Irish dairy sector. Investments by Glanbia–Leprino Foods (€130 million, 45,000-ton capacity) and Carbery Group (€78 million pasta filata facility), have significantly increased mozzarella production capacity. These support Ireland's strategy to diversify beyond Cheddar, reduce its dependence on the UK market following Brexit, and target growing demand for industrial mozzarella across Europe, Asia and the Middle East.Discussion and conclusions Higher milk availability has increased the volume available for processing, but allocation also depends on the relative valorisation of alternative processing routes, with mozzarella competing with other cheeses and dairy products. In the current market, mozzarella’s premium over foil cheeses, together with stronger seasonal demand, suggests that it remains an attractive processing route. Its fresh production cycle keeps output closely connected to current consumption, while expanding intra- and extra-EU trade shows that higher volumes are being absorbed in both European and international markets. This is also reflected in the strategies of European processors. Denmark’s established export position and Ireland’s rapid expansion show how the sector is responding to stronger internal and international demand. In Ireland, mozzarella has moved from a relatively small export product to a significant part of the country’s cheese portfolio. Overall, growing demand, expanding trade and investment in processing capacity are strengthening mozzarella’s position within the European dairy market.