Cheeseburger Menu: beef falls as dairy diverges

The Cheeseburger Menu Index moved lower in early August as increased cattle availability continued to weigh on beef prices, while dairy markets showed mixed signals, with raw milk correcting from its heatwave-driven highs but SMP prices strengthening.The Cheeseburger Menu Index closed at 104.85 in week 32, down 0.7% week-on-week and 5.2% month-on-month. The decline reflects broad pressure across the menu over the past month, with all three sub-indices trading below their early-July levels.The Cheeseburger Index recorded the largest weekly decline, falling 1.2% to 110.09, bringing its loss over the past month to 5% and pushing the index to its lowest level in the current series. The Fries Index was unchanged this week at 94.98, but has fallen 7.3% since early July. By contrast, the Milkshake Index showed some renewed strength, rising 1.8% this week to 87.18, although it remains 4.6% below its level a month ago.Meat market: higher cattle availability weighs on prices Beef prices continued to move lower in July. European O-grade cow prices fell to €5.47 per kilo in week 31, down 6.7% over the month and around 12% from their March peak. The decline was considerably stronger than in higher-quality cattle categories. Over the same period, R-grade young bulls fell 2.6% to €6.32 per kilo, while U-grade young bulls declined 3.3% to €6.41 per kilo, pointing to a broader correction in the cattle market but significantly stronger pressure in the cow segment.The decline in cow prices has been supported by persistently high cattle availability, particularly from the dairy herd. Dutch cattle slaughter reached 12,410 head in week 30, up 10.9% from the previous week, bringing cumulative slaughter in 2026 to 310,990 head, 9.6% above the same period last year. R- and U-grade young bulls have remained relatively more resilient, although price declines across all three categories show that weakness is not limited to the cow segment.Dairy market: raw milk corrects while SMP and cheese strengthen Raw milk prices have corrected following the sharp increase recorded during the recent heatwaves across Europe. In week 32, Southern Germany closed at €36.5 per 100 kg, down 12% over the month, while Northern Germany reached €34.5 per 100 kg (-11.5%). The Netherlands proved more resilient, increasing slightly to €37 per 100 kg this week, although prices remain 7.5% lower compared with early July. Meanwhile, the powder market moved higher despite subdued trading activity. DCA skimmed milk powder increased by 3.4% to €2,865 per ton in week 32, bringing its gain over the past month to 5.7%. Market sentiment has improved as the earlier oversupply has become more limited, supported by higher drying costs and constrained processing capacity. Volatility in international markets, particularly in the US, has provided additional support to European powder prices. The cheese market also strengthened modestly, with mild cheddar increasing 1.5% to €3,425 per ton, although the holiday period continues to keep overall market activity relatively quiet.