Cheeseburger Menu: heatwaves and seasonal shifts push costs higher

The Cheeseburger Menu Index advanced further in week 27, driven by a sharp recovery in dairy liquid prices following the recent European heatwaves and a surge in onion prices during the transition to the new harvest, highlighting how weather and seasonal dynamics continue to reshape ingredient costs.The Cheeseburger Menu index took a step further this week, closing at 110.12, up 3.4% month-on-month. The increase was largely driven by a sharp recovery in dairy liquid prices following the recent heatwaves across Europe. While the Milkshake Index continues to recover from its absolute lows, it closed at 84.74, recording a sharp 30.4% week-on-week increase. By contrast, the Fries Index remained broadly stable (+0.1%), while the Cheeseburger Index itself eased slightly by 0.3% compared to the previous week. Dairy market: heatwaves tighten milk availability In week 27, dairy liquid prices turned sharply higher. Spot raw milk prices in the Netherlands increased by 74.4%, closing at €34 per 100 kg, while Southern Germany reached €37.5 per 100 kg (+47.1%) and Northern Germany €35.5 per 100 kg (+61.4%). The increase followed the recent heatwaves across Europe, which are estimated to have reduced milk production by 10% or more in some regions, pushing spot prices to their highest levels since September 2025. Spot milk prices are now approaching guaranteed milk prices paid to farmers, highlighting the tightening availability of milk in the spot market. Looking ahead, tighter global milk supplies could provide further support to the market. Milk production in both South America and Oceania is expected to be affected by El Niño conditions later this year, reinforcing expectations of a more constrained global supply. By contrast, the powder and cheese markets remained relatively stable. DCA skimmed milk powder closed at €2,665 per ton (+2.7%), while mild cheddar increased modestly to €3,310 per ton (+0.9%). Participants continue to report a quieter trading environment in the cheese market amid the holiday period, although relatively tight product availability is providing underlying support to both cheese and powder prices. Onion market: new season brings volatility Most of the other components of the menu remained relatively stable, but onions told a different story this week. In week 26, all DCA packed yellow onion benchmarks increased to €30 per 100 kg or more, with 45–65 mm and 50–70 mm onions recording an increase of160.9% week-on-week. Although prices eased back to around €25 per 100 kg in week 27, sales have continued at a reasonably good pace. The sharp increase was mainly driven by the transition from the old crop to the new harvest, as the storage season came to an end and volumes of winter-planted onions were available ahead of the larger spring-planted harvest. At the same time, contributors reported that very warm weather made harvesting more challenging, increasing the risk of sunburn and other damage. Demand also remained strong, with the best early-July export sales in five years supported by shipments to Central America, Africa and Asia.