Shifting trade flows redefine the global beef market

On International Meat Day, the global beef market is entering a new phase. Tight cattle supplies in the EU and United States support import demand, while Brazil and Australia expand export availability. However, Chinese import quotas are beginning to reshape trade flows, increasing competition and potentially changing the balance of the global beef market.European beef prices followed an upward trend through 2025 and into early 2026. Young bull prices increased by 32% between 2024 and 2026 (YTD), while cow prices rose by 39.5%. Both markets peaked around week 9 of 2026, reaching €737,12 per 100kg for young bulls and €622,79 per100kg for cows, before declining by 10.9% and 5%, respectively. The correction reflects weaker consumer demand, particularly in Northern Europe, while cow prices remained comparatively more resilient.In the international beef market, price trends diverge. North American prices remained at significantly higher levels, particularly the United States (US) and Canada, while South American prices are more competitive. Brazilian cattle prices remained the most competitive among the major exporters, followed by Paraguay, while Australian prices followed a firmer upward trend during the second half of 2025.Europe and the US increase reliance on imports From a supply perspective, both the EU and US cattle herds have been declining, reinforcing concerns around long-term beef availability. The contraction has been more pronounced in the US, where cattle inventories declined by 9.6% over the last five years, compared to a 5.5% reduction in Europe. Although herd sizes remain historically tight, the pace of decline slowed in 2025, with US inventories totaling 27.89 million head (-0.4% YoY) and the EU herd at 71.53 million head (-0.5% YoY). As a result, both markets are becoming increasingly reliant on imports, and in the US this trend is further reinforced by resilient beef demand despite historically high prices.When looking at trade flows, as of January 2026, intra- and extra-EU exports declined by 7.9% and 15.5%, respectively, while extra-EU imports increased by 25.9% to 32,794 tons. Import growth come particularly from South American suppliers, with imports from Brazil increasing by 58.8%, followed by Uruguay (+47.9%) and Argentina (+6%), a trend that could further intensify following the Mercosur agreement.A similar pattern is visible in the US, where exports declined by 24.4% as of February 2026 to 164,808 tons, while imports increased by 17.3% to 325,661 tons. Australia remained the main beef supplier, although imports from Brazil increased significantly to 57,390 tons (+45.3%), alongside strong growth from Uruguay (+22%), Argentina (+127.1%), Nicaragua and Paraguay.Brazil and Australia drive export growth Among the major global beef exporters, Brazil continues to strengthen its position, supported by expanding cattle supply, with cattle slaughter reaching 42.9 million head in 2025 (+8.2% YoY), while carcass output increased by 7.2% to 11.1 million tons. As of April 2026, exports continue to break records (+15.2% YTD), driven by stronger shipments to China (+19.3%), the US (+12.5%), Chile (+25.1%) and Russia (+57.4%), while exports to Saudi Arabia and Israel declined amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.Australia also expanded its role in global beef trade. As of March 2026, export volumes increased by 19.5% to 391,893 tons, driven by higher shipments to the US (+20.5%), China (+35.2%) and Korea (+33.4%). The strong export performance was supported by elevated slaughter rates, despite flooding and wet weather conditions in Queensland temporarily disrupting processing capacity.Chinese quotas reshape global trade Yet the direction of export flows may soon change as Chinese import quotas begin to alter global trade flows. Brazil's quota is set at 1.1 million tons, with around 65% already utilized and expectations that it could be fully consumed by July. Australia faces a similar situation, with aorund 90% of its quota filled as of June. Brazil has more at stake than Australia, given its greater dependence on the Chinese market, while Australia maintains access to alternative destinations such as Japan, South Korea and the US. Chinese buyers have also already started diversifying their sourcing strategies, increasing purchases of grainfed beef from Canada and grassfed beef from Argentina and Uruguay. In response, both Brazil and Australia lobby for quota adjustments, and expectations of weaker Chinese demand have already started to weigh on Brazilian cattle prices, which declined by around 4% from their mid-April peak to BRL 352.3 per 15kg in early June.The US appears as a logical destination for redirected beef volumes, although uncertainty surrounding American trade policy adds complexity. Trump administration has indicated it may temporarily ease import restrictions to address rising domestic prices, potentially improving access for suppliers, particularly Brazil. Even before policy changes have been implemented, market sentiment has already been affected, with American importers lowering bids and becoming more cautious in anticipation of potentially cheaper imports.Outlook As beef volumes seek alternative destinations, competition among exporters is expected to intensify. Brazil's competitive pricing position could place further pressure on suppliers, particularly in the US market, while the impact of these shifting trade flows may also benefit Europe through increased South American beef availability and improved import competitiveness at a time when domestic cattle supplies are constrained. At the same time, buyers in Japan are already delaying purchases in anticipation of greater availability and lower prices, while Korea faces its own tariff constraints and exporters increasingly look towards alternative destinations. As a result, a correction in global beef prices may have already begun, as volumes traditionally destined for China increasingly compete for market share in other regions. Additional references Comex Stat, USDA, Beef Central, SAGyP Argentina, Comext, Eurostat, CEPEA, MOFCOM, GACC. Note: Trade data refers to HS codes 0201 and 0202.