Weakness continues despite isolated gains in future markets

Following the weakness observed in the previous week, market sentiment remained mixed to bearish last week.On the CME, most futures contracts moved higher. The main exceptions were Butter C1 and Whey C1 and C5-C6, which remained unchanged. Cheese declined across all contracts, while Class III Milk moved lower in all contracts except C3. CONTRACT CME Product Contract 25/May 29/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May $4,585 $4,604 ↑ 0.41% June $4,409 $4,497 ↑ 2.00% July $3,943 $4,067 ↑ 3.16% August $3,572 $3,692 ↑ 3.36% September $3,411 $3,554 ↑ 4.18% October $3,318 $3,493 ↑ 5.28% Average $3,873 $3,985 ↑ 2.88% Butter May $3,626 $3,616 ↓ -0.29% June $3,438 $3,610 ↑ 5.00% July $3,519 $3,770 ↑ 7.14% August $3,631 $3,880 ↑ 6.86% September $3,754 $3,953 ↑ 5.28% October $3,841 $4,069 ↑ 5.93% Average $3,635 $3,816 ↑ 4.99% Whey May $1,411 $1,408 ↓ -0.23% June $1,432 $1,444 ↑ 0.81% July $1,438 $1,472 ↑ 2.30% August $1,455 $1,491 ↑ 2.50% September $1,510 $1,507 ↓ -0.22% October $1,543 $1,527 ↓ -1.07% Average $1,465 $1,475 ↑ 0.66% Block Cheese May $3,655 $3,653 ↓ -0.06% June $3,565 $3,485 ↓ -2.23% July $3,587 $3,574 ↓ -0.37% August $3,715 $3,688 ↓ -0.71% September $3,818 $3,794 ↓ -0.64% October $3,924 $3,902 ↓ -0.56% Average $3,711 $3,683 ↓ -0.75% Milk Class III May $37.30 $37.28 ↓ -0.06% June $36.53 $35.78 ↓ -2.05% July $36.71 $36.82 ↑ 0.30% August $38.18 $38.10 ↓ -0.23% September $39.44 $39.24 ↓ -0.50% October $40.67 $40.48 ↓ -0.49% Average $38.14 $37.95 ↓ -0.50% Milk Class IV May $49.25 $49.29 ↑ 0.09% June $46.69 $48.28 ↑ 3.40% July $42.99 $45.19 ↑ 5.13% August $40.28 $42.22 ↑ 4.82% September $39.37 $41.56 ↑ 5.54% October $39.00 $41.36 ↑ 6.05% Average $42.93 $44.65 ↑ 4.01% In the spot market, both cheese contracts posted losses. CME Spot market Product 25/May 29/May ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1,499 $1,543 ↑ 2.94% Cheese Blocks $3,318 $3,252 ↓ -1.99% Cheese Barrels $3,263 $3,175 ↓ -2.70% Butter $3,384 $3,676 ↑ 8.63% SMP $4,569 $4,608 ↑ 0.84% Following the more bullish tone seen in futures markets the previous week, SGX dairy futures adopted a more cautious to bearish tone. Milk contracts declined in 2026, while contracts for 2027 and 2028 moved higher. WMP also declined in C4 and C5 and remained unchanged in C6. AMF increased in C2 and C6, while remaining unchanged in C3, C4, and C5. Butter contracts were unchanged across the entire curve. SGX Product Contract 25/May 29/May ∆ ∆ % WMP June $3,735 $3,755 ↑ 0.54% July $3,645 $3,675 ↑ 0.82% August $3,620 $3,640 ↑ 0.55% September $3,610 $3,600 ↓ -0.28% October $3,585 $3,580 ↓ -0.14% November $3,600 $3,600 ↔ 0.00% Average $3,633 $3,642 ↑ 0.25% SMP June $3,575 $3,500 ↓ -2.10% July $3,490 $3,455 ↓ -1.00% August $3,445 $3,385 ↓ -1.74% September $3,415 $3,330 ↓ -2.49% October $3,370 $3,300 ↓ -2.08% November $3,365 $3,300 ↓ -1.93% Average $3,443 $3,378 ↓ -1.89% AMF June $6,520 $6,400 ↓ -1.84% July $6,250 $6,280 ↑ 0.48% August $6,175 $6,175 ↔ 0.00% September $6,145 $6,145 ↔ 0.00% October $5,900 $5,900 ↔ 0.00% November $5,775 $5,780 ↑ 0.09% Average $6,128 $6,113 ↓ -0.23% Butter June $5,800 $5,800 ↔ 0.00% July $5,650 $5,650 ↔ 0.00% August $5,490 $5,490 ↔ 0.00% September $5,355 $5,355 ↔ 0.00% October $5,300 $5,300 ↔ 0.00% November $5,275 $5,275 ↔ 0.00% Average $5,478 $5,478 ↔ 0.00% Milk Sept '26 $9.85 $9.84 ↑ -0.10% Sept '27 $9.73 $9.75 ↑ 0.21% Sept '28 $9.45 $9.46 ↑ 0.11% European dairy markets also displayed a generally weaker trend during the week, with most EEX contracts recording losses. Whey was the main exception, with C1-C4 posting gains, while C5 and C6 remained unchanged. Liquid Milk was unchanged in C1. EEX in EUR Product Contract 25/May 29/May ∆ ∆ % SMP June €2,941 €2,938 ↓ -0.10% July €2,883 €2,851 ↓ -1.11% August €2,885 €2,850 ↓ -1.21% September €2,885 €2,859 ↓ -0.90% October €2,855 €2,850 ↓ -0.18% November €2,873 €2,850 ↓ -0.80% Average €2,887 €2,866 ↓ -0.72% Butter June €3,938 €3,925 ↓ -0.33% July €4,150 €4,048 ↓ -2.46% August €4,262 €4,136 ↓ -2.96% September €4,314 €4,235 ↓ -1.83% October €4,572 €4,476 ↓ -2.10% November €4,563 €4,541 ↓ -0.48% Average €4,300 €4,227 ↓ -1.70% Whey June €1,500 $1,525 ↑ 1.67% July €1,513 €1,550 ↑ 2.45% August €1,513 €1,575 ↑ 4.10% September €1,513 €1,588 ↑ 4.96% October €1,600 €1,600 ↔ 0.00% November €1,590 €1,590 ↔ 0.00% Average €1,538 €1,571 ↑ 2.16% Liq Milk June €38.33 €38.33 ↔ 0.00% July €39.74 €38.98 ↓ -1.91% August €41.07 €40.03 ↓ -2.53% September €41.26 €40.35 ↓ -2.21% October €41.93 €41.19 ↓ -1.76% November €42.53 €41.87 ↓ -1.55% Average €40.81 €40.13 ↓ -1.68% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 11643 11662 >> 0.16% Product Contract 25/May 29/May ∆ ∆ % SMP June $3,424 $3,426 ↑ 0.06% July $3,357 $3,325 ↓ -0.95% August $3,359 $3,324 ↓ -1.05% September $3,359 $3,334 ↓ -0.74% October $3,324 $3,324 ↓ -0.01% November $3,345 $3,324 ↓ -0.64% Average $3,361 $3,343 ↓ -0.55% Butter June $4,585 $4,577 ↓ -0.17% July $4,832 $4,721 ↓ -2.30% August $4,962 $4,823 ↓ -2.80% September $5,023 $4,939 ↓ -1.67% October $5,323 $5,220 ↓ -1.94% November $5,313 $5,296 ↓ -0.32% Average $5,006 $4,929 ↓ -1.54% Whey June $1,746 $1,778 ↑ 1.83% July $1,762 $1,808 ↑ 2.61% August $1,762 $1,837 ↑ 4.27% September $1,762 $1,852 ↑ 5.13% October $1,863 $1,866 ↑ 0.16% November $1,851 $1,854 ↑ 0.16% Average $1,791 $1,832 ↑ 2.32% Liq Milk June $44.63 $44.70 ↑ 0.16% July $46.27 $45.46 ↓ -1.75% August $47.82 $46.68 ↓ -2.37% September $48.04 $47.06 ↓ -2.05% October $48.82 $48.04 ↓ -1.60% November $49.52 $48.83 ↓ -1.39% Average $47.52 $46.79 ↓ -1.52% The comparison with the final trading session of 2025 highlights a clear regional divergence. Overall, most commodities recorded gains. The main exceptions were US Whey and US Spot Whey. EEX contracts generally moved higher, with butter being the only notable exception. On SGX, all futures contracts posted gains. Among the three major trading blocs, New Zealand remains the strongest performer since the end of 2025. Region Product Change 22/05/'26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 54.14% BUTTER 7.16% WHEY -0.76% CHEESE 8.06% MILK CLASS III 8.36% MILK CLASS IV 43.94% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -4.11% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 10.49% CHEDDAR BARRELS 2.86% BUTTER 18.89% SMP 77.12% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP 15.61% SMP 32.17% AMF 13.21% BUTTER 12.54% MILK '26 8.73% MILK '27 20.37% MILK '28 10.64% EU EEX SMP 37.41% BUTTER -2.00% WHEY 48.66% LIQ MILK 0.94%