Expanding dairy herd drives a higher US milk output in April

US milk production continued its strong expansion in April, supported by growing dairy herds and improving yields in key producing states. At the same time, milk prices remain under pressure, although recent months have shown the first signs of recovery. Projections indicate stronger dairy demand and continued production growth, indicating a more optimistic outlook for producers. Milk production in the 24 selected US states reached 8.7 million tons in April, marking a 2.8% increase from the previous year and maintaining a stable growth rate compared to the previous month.While most states reported increases in milk collections, the strongest growth was observed in Kansas (+23.7%), Wisconsin (+2.9%), California (+2.3%), and Texas (+4.4%). Only five states reported declines, with Washington (-7%) and Pennsylvania (-2%) recording the largest contractions.Although milk production efficiency increased only marginally by 0.63% year-over-year to 944.4 kilos per head, US milk production expanded primarily due to the increase in the number of producing animals. In April, the number of cows in production totaled 9.21 million head, reflecting a 2.14% increase compared to the previous year. The states contributing most to dairy herd growth were Kansas (+22.4%), Wisconsin (+2.9%), and Texas (+4.2%), mirroring the main contributors to milk production growth. California diverged slightly from this trend, with its dairy herd remaining relatively stable (+0.3%), while milk production growth was driven more by yield gains (+2%).These developments have created a strong production environment in the US as the spring season advances, with cumulative output increasing by 3.1% year-over-year to 34.24 million tons as of April.In line with the abundant milk availability across the country, milk prices in March remained 10.5% below the previous year at USD 19.7 per hundredweight (cwt), with prices declining in every state. The largest declines were observed in Colorado (-16.1%), Florida (-13.8%), and Michigan (-14.4%), while more moderate decreases were recorded in Idaho (-4.7%) and Washington (-7.6%).That said, the pace of decline slowed notably compared to February, when prices contracted by 22.5%. Moreover, prices increased slightly by 7.7% from February, marking the second consecutive month of price recovery.In line with these developments, the milk-to-feed price ratio averaged 2.25 in March, indicating an 8.2% decline compared to the previous year but a 3.7% increase from the previous month. Although market profitability remains below year-ago levels, this suggests that production incentives for farmers may be gradually recovering. Notably, these early signs of improving production incentives emerged despite the overall abundance of dairy output in both the US and other major global producers.Looking ahead to May, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects further increases in both milk production and dairy product demand, while exports and imports are also expected to grow. Milk production is expected to continue along its current expansion path, supported by higher cow numbers and increased production per animal. According to the USDA, the anticipated increase in supply is expected to be matched by stronger domestic demand. This would provide price support for dairy products in 2026, particularly cheese, whey, and SMP, thereby encouraging further production expansion throughout the year. As such, the overall market environment points to cautious optimism for production, despite USDA projections indicating that production growth could begin to moderate toward 2027.