Future dairy markets under pressure

Despite the more bullish signal from the latest GDT event, most dairy futures markets moved lower this week.On the CME, most contracts declined, except for SMP C1, which remained unchanged, and Whey C1, C4, and C6, which also moved lower. CONTRACT CME Product Contract 18/May 22/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May $4,574 $4,585 ↑ 0.24% June $4,600 $4,409 ↓ -4.17% July $4,188 $3,943 ↓ -5.86% August $3,889 $3,572 ↓ -8.15% September $3,500 $3,411 ↓ -2.55% October $3,610 $3,318 ↓ -8.09% Average $4,060 $3,873 ↓ -4.62% Butter May $3,665 $3,626 ↓ -1.07% June $3,671 $3,438 ↓ -6.34% July $3,704 $3,519 ↓ -5.00% August $3,833 $3,631 ↓ -5.26% September $3,916 $3,754 ↓ -4.12% October $3,990 $3,841 ↓ -3.74% Average $3,796 $3,635 ↓ -4.26% Whey May $1,411 $1,411 ↔ 0.00% June $1,438 $1,432 ↓ -0.42% July $1,510 $1,438 ↓ -4.74% August $1,560 $1,455 ↓ -6.71% September $1,587 $1,510 ↓ -4.86% October $1,593 $1,543 ↓ -3.11% Average $1,517 $1,465 ↓ -3.40% Block Cheese May $3,657 $3,655 ↓ -0.06% June $3,635 $3,565 ↓ -1.94% July $3,717 $3,587 ↓ -3.50% August $3,825 $3,715 ↓ -2.88% September $3,896 $3,818 ↓ -1.98% October $3,968 $3,924 ↓ -1.11% Average $3,783 $3,711 ↓ -1.91% Milk Class III May $37.37 $37.30 ↓ -0.18% June $37.35 $36.53 ↓ -2.18% July $38.58 $36.71 ↓ -4.86% August $39.97 $38.18 ↓ -4.47% September $40.76 $39.44 ↓ -3.24% October $41.60 $40.67 ↓ -2.23% Average $39.27 $38.14 ↓ -2.88% Milk Class IV May $49.32 $49.25 ↓ -0.13% June $49.60 $46.69 ↓ -5.87% July $46.25 $42.99 ↓ -7.05% August $44.03 $40.28 ↓ -8.51% September $42.88 $39.37 ↓ -8.17% October $42.00 $39.00 ↓ -7.14% Average $45.68 $42.93 ↓ -6.02% The CME spot market declined across all commodities. CME Spot market Product 18/May 22/May ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1,521 $1,499 ↓ -1.45% Cheese Blocks $3,428 $3,318 ↓ -3.22% Cheese Barrels $3,428 $3,263 ↓ -4.82% Butter $3,616 $3,384 ↓ -6.40% SMP $5,004 $4,569 ↓ -8.70% Following the more bullish tone observed during GDT 404, sentiment on the SGX dairy futures market remained positive for butterfat products but weaker for powders. Milk contracts remained unchanged for 2026 and 2028, while 2027 contracts moved lower. SGX Product Contract 18/May 22/May ∆ ∆ % WMP June $3,890 $3,740 ↓ -3.86% July $3,820 $3,640 ↓ -4.71% August $3,780 $3,630 ↓ -3.97% September $3,770 $3,625 ↓ -3.85% October $3,725 $3,600 ↓ -3.36% November $3,745 $3,605 ↓ -3.74% Average $3,788 $3,640 ↓ -3.92% SMP June $3,760 $3,600 ↓ -4.26% July $3,715 $3,505 ↓ -5.65% August $3,650 $3,450 ↓ -5.48% September $3,620 $3,430 ↓ -5.25% October $3,565 $3,375 ↓ -5.33% November $3,585 $3,375 ↓ -5.86% Average $3,649 $3,456 ↓ -5.30% AMF June $6,410 $6,520 ↑ 1.72% July $6,240 $6,250 ↑ 0.16% August $6,025 $6,175 ↑ 2.49% September $5,955 $6,145 ↑ 3.19% October $5,850 $5,900 ↑ 0.85% November $5,770 $5,775 ↑ 0.09% Average $6,042 $6,128 ↑ 1.42% Butter June $5,625 $5,780 ↑ 2.76% July $5,555 $5,650 ↑ 1.71% August $5,465 $5,490 ↑ 0.46% September $5,390 $5,355 ↓ -0.65% October $5,365 $5,300 ↓ -1.21% November $5,325 $5,375 ↑ 0.94% Average $5,454 $5,492 ↑ 0.69% Milk Sept '26 $9.85 $9.85 ↑ 0.00% Sept '27 $9.90 $9.72 ↓ -1.82% Sept '28 $9.45 $9.45 ↑ 0.00% European dairy markets delivered mixed results this week. On the EEX, most contracts moved higher. Exceptions included SMP C1, C2, and C6; Butter C1 through C5; Whey contracts except for C1 and C4; and Liquid Milk contracts except for C3 through C5. EEX in EUR Product Contract 18/May 22/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May €2,942 €2,938 ↓ -0.14% June €3,038 €3,013 ↓ -0.82% July €3,075 €3,100 ↑ 0.81% August €3,088 €3,113 ↑ 0.81% September €3,040 €3,060 ↑ 0.66% October €3,023 €3,023 ↓ 0.00% Average €3,034 €3,041 ↑ 0.23% Butter May €3,900 €3,900 ↔ 0.00% June €3,969 €3,958 ↓ -0.28% July €4,175 €4,163 ↓ -0.29% August €4,313 €4,300 ↓ -0.30% September €4,456 €4,456 ↔ 0.00% October €4,625 €4,638 ↑ 0.28% Average €4,240 €4,236 ↓ -0.09% Whey May €1,500 $1,500 ↔ 0.00% June €1,500 €1,540 ↑ 2.67% July €1,513 €1,565 ↑ 3.44% August €1,538 €1,538 ↔ 0.00% September €1,556 €1,563 ↑ 0.45% October €1,613 €1,600 ↑ -0.81% Average €1,537 €1,551 ↑ 0.93% Liq Milk May €37.64 June €38.86 €39.07 ↑ 0.54% July €40.15 €40.00 ↓ -0.37% August €40.67 €40.54 ↓ -0.32% September €41.12 €41.02 ↓ -0.24% October €41.55 €41.62 ↑ 0.17% Average €40.00 €40.45 ↓ 1.13% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 11659 11603 >> -0.48% Product Contract 18/May 22/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May $3,430 $3,409 ↓ -0.62% June $3,542 $3,496 ↓ -1.30% July $3,585 $3,597 ↑ 0.33% August $3,600 $3,612 ↑ 0.33% September $3,544 $3,551 ↑ 0.17% October $3,525 $3,508 ↓ -0.48% Average $3,538 $3,529 ↓ -0.26% Butter May $4,547 $4,525 ↓ -0.48% June $4,627 $4,592 ↓ -0.76% July $4,868 $4,830 ↓ -0.77% August $5,029 $4,989 ↓ -0.78% September $5,195 $5,170 ↓ -0.48% October $5,392 $5,381 ↓ -0.20% Average $4,943 $4,915 ↓ -0.57% Whey May $1,749 $1,740 ↓ -0.48% June $1,749 $1,787 ↑ 2.17% July $1,764 $1,816 ↑ 2.94% August $1,793 $1,785 ↓ -0.48% September $1,814 $1,814 ↓ -0.03% October $1,881 $1,856 ↓ -1.28% Average $1,792 $1,800 ↑ 0.45% Liq Milk May $43.88 June $45.31 $45.33 ↑ 0.06% July $46.81 $46.41 ↓ -0.85% August $47.42 $47.04 ↓ -0.80% September $47.94 $47.60 ↓ -0.72% October $48.44 $48.29 ↓ -0.31% Average $46.63 $46.93 ↑ 0.64% When comparing current performance with the final trading session of 2025, a strong regional divergence becomes apparent. In general, most commodities moved higher. The main exceptions were US Whey and the US spot whey market. EEX markets mostly strengthened, apart from butter, while SGX futures generally moved higher across all products. Overall, New Zealand continues to stand out as the strongest performer among the three trading blocs. Region Product Change 22/05/'26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 49.82% BUTTER 2.07% WHEY -1.41% CHEESE 8.88% MILK CLASS III 8.91% MILK CLASS IV 38.40% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -6.85% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 12.73% CHEDDAR BARRELS 5.71% BUTTER 9.45% SMP 75.64% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP 15.56% SMP 35.20% AMF 13.47% BUTTER 12.81% MILK '26 8.84% MILK '27 20.00% MILK '28 10.53% EU EEX SMP 45.79% BUTTER -1.79% WHEY 46.74% LIQ MILK 1.76%