China's dairy imports rebound in April

April was a positive month for China’s dairy imports, although five commodity categories still recorded declines. The most notable decreases in import volumes were seen in skimmed milk powder (SMP), WPC80/WPI, caseinates, lactose, infant formula (I/F), and yoghurt.One of the most remarkable developments was the sharp increase in whole milk powder (WMP) imports, which surged by 63% compared to the previous year. Other fat-based dairy products also remained in strong demand, with cheese, butter, and anhydrous milk fat (AMF) all posting double-digit growth. April Imports April '25 April '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 27,438 27,372 -66 -0.24% WMP 38,285 62,374 24,089 62.92% Whey 54,897 56,845 1,948 3.55% WPC80/WPI's 3,028 2,985 -43 -1.42% Casein 1,469 2,213 744 50.65% Caseinates 1,750 974 -776 -44.34% Lactose 14,426 12,409 -2,017 -13.98% I/F 20,316 17,327 -2,989 -14.71% Cheese 17,064 19,934 2,870 16.82% Butter 7,275 8,972 1,697 23.33% AMF 4,698 5,466 768 16.35% Cream 24,255 24,652 397 1.64% Yoghurt 2,186 620 -1,566 -71.64% Condensed 1,405 1,455 50 3.56% Milk 27,066 29,323 2,257 8.34% Overall, April imports increased by 13.58% year on year, equivalent to 191 million kilos LME, compared to growth of 1.95%, or 29 million kilos LME, recorded in March. April marked the second month of year-on-year import growth since October 2025.Despite the improvement in April, cumulative import performance through the first four months of the year remained negative, although the deficit nearly halved compared to March levels. Several commodity segments, including SMP, whey, WPC80/WPI, caseinates, lactose, I/F, AMF, and yoghurt, continued to underperform expectations. YTD April Imports YTD April '25 YTD April '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 103,685 78,548 -25,137 -24.24% WMP 185,479 197,273 11,794 6.36% Whey 236,174 214,049 -22,125 -9.37% WPC80/WPI's 11,684 11,186 -498 -4.26% Casein 5,462 8,391 2,929 53.63% Caseinates 8,586 7,370 -1,216 -14.16% Lactose 54,917 41,389 -13,528 -24.63% I/F 68,116 66,849 -1,267 -1.86% Cheese 63,344 82,094 18,750 29.60% Butter 42,580 46,190 3,610 8.48% AMF 16,308 16,117 -191 -1.17% Cream 90,378 98,964 8,586 9.50% Yoghurt 4,394 3,227 -1,167 -26.56% Condensed 2,243 4,768 2,525 112.57% Milk 116,484 121,425 4,941 4.24% Year-to-date (YTD) imports through April recorded a year-on-year decline of 3.70%, equivalent to 218 million kilos LME. This compares with the steeper decline of 9.06%, or 406 million kilos LME, reported in March.The pace of import declines had already begun to moderate during the July–October 2024 period, while November and December showed the first signs of improving momentum. This positive trend continued into the first half of 2025, although August recorded another year-on-year decline. Imports returned to positive territory in September and October before weakening again in November and December. April, therefore, represented the second month of year-on-year import growth since that renewed downturn.China’s broader economic environment remains mixed. The labour market continues to face pressure from persistently high unemployment levels. Inflation developments have also been volatile. After trending downward since August, inflation briefly increased in January before falling into negative territory from February through May. June and July returned to positive levels, although August and September slipped back into deflation. Inflation turned positive again in October and remained so through March, which recorded inflation of 1%. In April, inflation rose further to 1.2%.In addition to broader economic challenges, China’s dairy sector continues to struggle with low domestic milk prices. Farmgate milk prices in April 2026 fell to CNY 302 per 100 kilos, equivalent to EUR 37.75 per 100 kilos, compared with CNY 303 per 100 kilos, or EUR 38 per 100 kilos, in March.Persistently high milk production is expected to translate into greater export activity over time, and the first indications of this trend became visible in China’s 2025 export data. However, YTD April export figures have now turned negative. Export performance moved from growth of 138%, equivalent to 404 million kilos LME, in December 2025 to a decline of 18.11%, or 33 million kilos LME, by YTD April. YTD April Exports YTD April '25 YTD April '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 2,019 4,064 2,045 101.29% WMP 15,496 9,760 -5,736 -37.02% Casein 31 80 49 158.06% Caseinates 43 191 148 344.19% Lactose 260 345 85 32.69% I/F 2,496 2,657 161 6.45% Cheese 794 543 -251 -31.61% Butter 2,883 732 -2,151 -74.61% AMF 548 737 189 34.49% Yoghurt 1,433 1,240 -193 -13.47% Cream 48 78 30 62.50% Fermented 1,203 1,442 239 19.87% Condensed 655 787 132 20.15% Milk 10,711 14,537 3,826 35.72% Shipments below 500 tons are most likely return consignments. However, export volumes above this threshold may represent an early indication of China’s potential transition toward becoming both a significant dairy importer and exporter.Although export volumes remain below 2025 levels, performance by product category has still been notable. SMP exports increased by 101%, while liquid dairy products also recorded strong gains.While it remains early to draw firm conclusions, recent performance trends in SMP, I/F, butter, and liquid dairy products suggest that China could emerge as a more prominent dairy exporter in the coming years.