SGX futures support a firmer tone for GDT event 404

Since the previous Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has remained mixed. Event 404 may provide further market direction, while international dairy futures markets delivered mixed weekly performances, with weaker sentiment in the US and generally firmer trends in New Zealand.Compared with the winning prices from the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX futures indicate a potential increase in the GDT average winning price (AWP) if auction results align with futures pricing under both the “all contracts” and “C2 contracts” methods.Key market insightsNew Zealand milk production: March milk production increased by 9.76%, equivalent to an additional 172 million kilos, compared with a 6.01% increase recorded in February. Year-to-date production through March reached 6.344 billion kilos, up 5.50% year-on-year.SGX dairy futures: Market sentiment for New Zealand dairy futures has remained stable to firmer in recent weeks.Volumes and products: As the season approaches its end, the volumes and products offered at this event are affected by the absence of BMP. Total auction volume for today’s event stands at 10,772 tons.Exports: Year-to-date exports through March 2026 increased by 3.55%, equivalent to 215 million kilos LME.Expected price impact: If Event 404 results align with SGX futures, the GDT price index could increase by 0.6% under the “C2” method and by 1.00% under the “all contracts” method.Composition of volumes: Whole Milk Powder (WMP) continues to dominate offerings in Event 404, accounting for 54.00% of total volumes. Price movements in WMP will therefore have a significant impact on overall market sentiment and the index. Notably, WMP contracts on the SGX futures market have mostly declined since the previous GDT event.Global outlook: Dairy futures on both the EEX and CME reflected weaker market sentiment.Futures development: Since the previous GDT event, average futures prices (C1–C6) have continued to trade above the AWPs recorded during Event 403, apart from AMF and butter. AMF -4.65% SMP 3.33% Butter -2.87% WMP 2.48% Overall, Event 404 is characterized by a slightly bullish outlook based on developments in the futures markets. Additionally, the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the continued disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may encourage buyers to secure additional volumes amid expectations of higher prices in the coming period.