US dairy exports rise in March despite weakness in protein products

US dairy exports delivered strong overall results in March 2026 compared with the same month in 2025, despite declines in several product categories. Exports of WPC below 80% declined by 23.88%, while WPC above 80% and WPI decreased by 31.32%. Casein exports fell sharply by 68.14%, and caseinates declined by 35.15%. Infant formula exports also decreased significantly by 63.42%. SMP exports declined by 7.78%, and this downward trend is expected to continue in the coming months, as current US SMP prices are the highest globally.In contrast, all other product categories recorded growth, with fat-based products showing particularly strong performance, supported by highly competitive pricing.Overall, March export volumes increased by 8.35%, equivalent to an additional 129 million kilo of liquid milk equivalent (LME). US dairy exports March Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 64,574 59,552 -5,022 -7.78% WMP 2,623 3,944 1,321 50.36% Whey 18,131 24,662 6,531 36.02% Dairy blends/ mpc's 4,552 4,786 234 5.14% Mod. Whey 15,865 17,417 1,552 9.78% WPC < 80% 13,061 9,942 -3,119 -23.88% WPC80/WPI's 8,837 6,069 -2,768 -31.32% Casein 634 202 -432 -68.14% Caseinates 606 393 -213 -35.15% Lactose 34,084 35,909 1,825 5.35% I/F 3,056 1,118 -1,938 -63.42% Cheese 49,569 63,809 14,240 28.73% Butter 6,132 11,443 5,311 86.61% AMF 2,023 5,737 3,714 183.59% Cream 3,010 4,079 1,069 35.51% Fermented 5,626 7,145 1,519 27.00% Condensed 2,004 2,598 594 29.64% Milk 9,435 10,548 1,113 11.80% Year-to-date (YTD) export volumes through March were 11.29% higher than during the same period in 2025, representing an increase of 466 million kilo of LME. US dairy exports YTD March Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 159,825 167,677 7,852 4.91% WMP 6,580 10,895 4,315 65.58% Whey 49,143 66,032 16,889 34.37% Dairy blends/ mpc's 13,463 12,360 -1,103 -8.19% Mod. Whey 48,485 51,213 2,728 5.63% WPC < 80% 32,288 25,825 -6,463 -20.02% WPC80/WPI's 23,271 17,844 -5,427 -23.32% Casein 1,807 517 -1,290 -71.39% Caseinates 1,428 886 -542 -37.96% Lactose 95,666 99,315 3,649 3.81% I/F 7,373 3,995 -3,378 -45.82% Cheese 141,646 174,537 32,891 23.22% Butter 14,615 30,785 16,170 110.64% AMF 9,325 15,498 6,173 66.20% Cream 8,435 11,164 2,729 32.35% Fermented 16,269 21,447 5,178 31.83% Condensed 5,264 7,065 1,801 34.21% Milk 26,658 28,548 1,890 7.09% Export growth was partially constrained by declines in several key categories, most notably dairy blends and high-protein products such as WPC below 80%, WPC above 80% and WPI, casein, and caseinates. However, growth in other dairy product categories more than offset these reductions, supporting the overall increase in exports.US dairy imports reversed their year-over-year decline in March, increasing by 13.61%, equivalent to an additional 45 million kilos of LME compared with the previous year. US dairy imports March Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 293 350 57 19.45% WMP 1,606 2,098 492 30.64% Whey 1,380 1,440 60 4.35% WPC <80% 2,190 2,384 194 8.86% WPC80/WPI's 1,623 1,432 -191 -11.77% MPC 3,346 5,982 2,636 78.78% Casein 2,363 1,611 -752 -31.82% Caseinates 1,648 2,017 369 22.39% Lactose 288 149 -139 -48.26% I/F 6,921 6,427 -494 -7.14% Cheese 20,100 20,392 292 1.45% Butter 6,751 10,762 4,011 59.41% AMF 1,316 306 -1,010 -76.75% Cream 3,672 6,351 2,679 72.96% Condensed 3,931 4,778 847 21.55% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 4,714 3,497 -1,217 -25.82% Milk 2,063 1,708 -355 -17.21% However, YTD import data through March still shows a decline of 12.47%, equivalent to 122 million kilos of LME, compared with the same period last year. Declines were recorded across multiple categories, including whole milk powder, whey, WPC above 80%, and WPI, MPC, casein, lactose, infant formula, cheese, butter, AMF, and milk. US dairy imports YTD March Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 722 1,241 519 71.88% WMP 6,019 4,695 -1,324 -22.00% Whey 5,163 4,615 -548 -10.61% WPC <80% 6,176 7,053 877 14.20% WPC80/WPI's 4,053 3,287 -766 -18.90% MPC 15,349 13,210 -2,139 -13.94% Casein 7,329 5,399 -1,930 -26.33% Caseinates 4,159 5,028 869 20.89% Lactose 714 653 -61 -8.54% I/F 18,674 10,999 -7,675 -41.10% Cheese 53,783 44,664 -9,119 -16.96% Butter 20,107 19,475 -632 -3.14% AMF 4,091 1,066 -3,025 -73.94% Cream 11,413 14,523 3,110 27.25% Condensed 8,066 10,227 2,161 26.79% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 12,780 13,724 944 7.39% Milk 7,752 5,701 -2,051 -26.46% Despite the strong export performance, exports have done little to reduce excess milk supplies. Through March, US milk production increased by 754 million kilo year over year. Based on the combined trade and production figures, domestic consumption is estimated to have declined by 1.08% during the first quarter, equivalent to a reduction of 286 million kilo of LME.