Dairy futures observe mixed signals amid US weakness

This week, dairy markets presented mixed signals, with pronounced weakness in the US, where all futures declined.On the CME, all futures contracts moved lower. CONTRACT CME Product Month 27/Apr 01/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May $4,519 $4,442 ↓ -1.70% June $4,579 $4,332 ↓ -5.39% July $4,437 $4,156 ↓ -6.34% August $4,222 $3,960 ↓ -6.20% September $4,056 $3,792 ↓ -6.52% October $3,943 $3,662 ↓ -7.14% Average $4,293 $4,057 ↓ -5.48% Butter May $3,713 $3,682 ↓ -0.83% June $3,747 $3,593 ↓ -4.10% July $3,804 $3,660 ↓ -3.80% August $3,897 $3,764 ↓ -3.41% September $3,964 $3,864 ↓ -2.53% October $4,094 $3,946 ↓ -3.61% Average $3,870 $3,751 ↓ -3.06% Whey May $1,499 $1,456 ↓ -2.83% June $1,591 $1,477 ↓ -7.17% July $1,648 $1,532 ↓ -7.02% August $1,631 $1,551 ↓ -4.93% September $1,635 $1,575 ↓ -3.64% October $1,637 $1,576 ↓ -3.70% Average $1,607 $1,528 ↓ -4.91% Block Cheese May $3,794 $3,662 ↓ -3.49% June $3,869 $3,704 ↓ -4.27% July $3,959 $3,827 ↓ -3.34% August $4,021 $3,911 ↓ -2.74% September $4,034 $3,966 ↓ -1.69% October $4,028 $4,008 ↓ -0.49% Average $3,951 $3,846 ↓ -2.65% Milk Class III May $39.33 $37.65 ↓ -4.26% June $40.67 $38.18 ↓ -6.12% July $41.93 $39.68 ↓ -5.36% August $42.53 $40.72 ↓ -4.25% September $42.55 $41.34 ↓ -2.85% October $42.44 $41.67 ↓ -1.82% Average $41.57 $39.87 ↓ -4.09% Milk Class IV May $49.14 $48.30 ↓ -1.70% June $49.71 $46.74 ↓ -5.99% July $48.50 $45.50 ↓ -6.18% August $46.94 $44.27 ↓ -5.68% September $45.90 $43.21 ↓ -5.86% October $45.19 $42.33 ↓ -6.34% Average $47.56 $45.06 ↓ -5.27% In contrast, the CME spot market showed gains across most products, except for cheese barrels and SMP. However, later in the week, the spot market declined for whey, block cheese, and butter, reinforcing the overall bearish sentiment observed in US markets. CME Spot market Product 27/Apr 01/May ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1,549 $1,538 ↓ -0.71% Cheese Blocks $3,643 $3,616 ↓ -0.76% Cheese Barrels $3,560 $3,560 ↔ 0.00% Butter $3,720 $3,516 ↓ -5.48% SMP $4,982 $4,988 ↑ 0.11% On the SGX, sentiment improved following the losses recorded during the most recent GDT event. Most futures contracts moved higher, although some exceptions remained. WMP C1, SMP C1 to C3, and AMF C1 to C2 declined, while Milk C1 remained unchanged. Overall, the upward movement in most contracts indicates a relatively positive shift in market expectations. SGX Product Month 27/Apr 01/May ∆ ∆ % WMP May $3,785 $3,770 ↓ -0.40% June $3,790 $3,835 ↑ 1.19% July $3,700 $3,750 ↑ 1.35% August $3,685 $3,730 ↑ 1.22% September $3,675 $3,720 ↑ 1.22% October $3,655 $3,690 ↑ 0.96% Average $3,715 $3,749 ↑ 0.92% SMP May $3,720 $3,685 ↓ -0.94% June $3,720 $3,695 ↓ -0.67% July $3,650 $3,630 ↓ -0.55% August $3,545 $3,590 ↑ 1.27% September $3,515 $3,540 ↑ 0.71% October $3,485 $3,505 ↑ 0.57% Average $3,606 $3,608 ↑ 0.05% AMF May $6,315 $6,250 ↓ -1.03% June $6,165 $6,100 ↓ -1.05% July $5,910 $5,925 ↑ 0.25% August $5,750 $5,825 ↑ 1.30% September $5,750 $5,815 ↑ 1.13% October $5,570 $5,600 ↑ 0.54% Average $5,910 $5,919 ↑ 0.16% Butter May $5,605 $5,655 ↑ 0.89% June $5,275 $5,300 ↑ 0.47% July $5,240 $5,270 ↑ 0.57% August $5,250 $5,275 ↑ 0.48% September $5,200 $5,210 ↑ 0.19% October $5,250 $5,290 ↑ 0.76% Average $5,303 $5,333 ↑ 0.57% Milk Sept '26 $9.83 $9.83 ↔ 0.00% Sept '27 $9.63 $9.75 ↑ 1.25% Sept '28 $9.15 $9.20 ↑ 0.55% European dairy markets, as reflected on the EEX, showed a predominantly negative trend. Most contracts moved lower, although there were some pockets of strength. SMP contracts for C1, C2, C5, and C6 increased, while C4 remained stable. Butter posted gains in C3 and C4, and whey increased in C1, while C5 and C6 remained unchanged. All liquid milk contracts declined, underscoring broader weakness in the European market. EEX in EUR Product Month 27/Apr 01/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May €2,925 €2,950 ↑ 0.85% June €2,970 €3,000 ↑ 1.01% July €3,038 €3,025 ↓ -0.43% August €3,045 €3,045 ↔ 0.00% September €3,045 €3,065 ↑ 0.66% October €3,023 €3,050 ↑ 0.89% Average €3,008 €3,023 ↑ 0.49% Butter May €3,975 €3,891 ↓ -2.11% June €3,988 €3,917 ↓ -1.78% July €4,111 €4,128 ↑ 0.41% August €4,193 €4,275 ↑ 1.96% September €4,375 €4,388 ↓ 0.30% October €4,575 €4,573 ↓ -0.04% Average €4,203 €4,195 ↓ -0.18% Whey May €1,500 $1,550 ↑ 3.33% June €1,550 €1,500 ↓ -3.23% July €1,525 €1,500 ↓ -1.64% August €1,525 €1,500 ↓ -1.64% September €1,500 €1,500 ↔ 0.00% October €1,475 €1,500 ↑ 1.69% Average €1,513 €1,508 ↓ -0.28% Liq Milk May €39.27 €39.08 ↓ -0.48% June €39.83 €39.63 ↓ -0.50% July €40.30 €40.12 ↓ -0.45% August €40.71 €40.54 ↓ -0.42% September €41.48 €41.30 ↓ -0.43% October €42.01 €41.79 ↓ -0.52% Average €40.60 €40.41 ↓ -0.47% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1.1722 1.1723 >> 0.01% Product Month 27/Apr 01/May ∆ ∆ % SMP May $3,429 $3,458 ↑ 0.86% June $3,481 $3,517 ↑ 1.02% July $3,561 $3,546 ↓ -0.42% August $3,569 $3,570 ↑ 0.01% September $3,569 $3,593 ↑ 0.67% October $3,544 $3,576 ↑ 0.90% Average $3,526 $3,543 ↑ 0.50% Butter May $4,659 $4,561 ↓ -2.10% June $4,675 $4,592 ↓ -1.77% July $4,819 $4,839 ↑ 0.42% August $4,915 $5,012 ↑ 1.96% September $5,128 $5,144 ↑ 0.31% October $5,363 $5,361 ↓ -0.04% Average $4,927 $4,918 ↓ -0.17% Whey May $1,758 $1,817 ↑ 3.34% June $1,817 $1,758 ↓ -3.22% July $1,788 $1,758 ↓ -1.63% August $1,788 $1,758 ↓ -1.63% September $1,758 $1,758 ↑ 0.01% October $1,729 $1,758 ↑ 1.70% Average $1,773 $1,768 ↓ -0.27% Liq Milk May $46.03 $45.81 ↓ -0.48% June $46.69 $46.46 ↓ -0.49% July $47.24 $47.03 ↓ -0.44% August $47.72 $47.53 ↓ -0.41% September $48.62 $48.42 ↓ -0.43% October $49.24 $48.99 ↓ -0.52% Average $47.59 $47.37 ↓ -0.46% When comparing current performance with the final trading session of 2025, a clear regional divergence emerges. Most commodities have moved higher overall, with the main exceptions being CME spot whey futures and EEX butter futures.In summary, the US cash-settled futures market and the SGX, particularly for New Zealand-linked products, have been the strongest performers among the three trading regions, despite the short-term weakness observed this week in US markets. Region Product Change 01/05/'26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 56.95% BUTTER 5.35% WHEY 2.82% BLOCK CHEESE 12.86% MILK CLASS III 13.86% MILK CLASS IV 45.26% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -4.45% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 22.85% CHEDDAR BARRELS 15.36% BUTTER 13.73% SMP 91.74% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP 19.02% SMP 41.14% AMF 9.61% BUTTER 9.56% MILK '26 8.62% MILK '27 20.37% MILK '28 7.60% EU EEX SMP 44.89% BUTTER -2.73% WHEY 42.70% LIQ MILK 1.66%