Cheeseburger Menu Index continues upward trend

The Cheeseburger Menu Index continued to rise during the first weeks of the year, closing at 109.72 in week 11. The increase is mainly driven by higher fries and cheeseburger component costs, while milkshake ingredients remain more volatile.On a week-on-week basis, movements were relatively limited. The largest increases came from the fries index (+1.3%) and the milkshake index (+1.2%), while the overall menu index rose 0.6%.Dairy markets diverge as liquid milk remains under pressure What initially appeared to be a slight recovery in the liquid dairy market in mid-February has once again reversed. In week 11, raw milk prices declined across several regions on a month-on-month basis. Prices in Southern Germany fell to €15.5 per 100 kg (-22.5%), while Northern Germany reached €14 per 100 kg (-22.2%), and the Netherlands recorded €11.5 per 100 kg (-42.5%).In contrast, markets for solid dairy products and milk fat have shown some recovery. On a month-on-month basis, DCA skimmed milk powder closed at €2,635 per ton (+11.4%), while mild cheddar settled at €3,630 per ton (+8.8%). Meanwhile, the liquid market remains under pressure as abundant milk supply continues to weigh on spot prices. Volatility has also been visible across dairy markets, with prices moving daily. In addition, last year's Bluetongue outbreak may still disrupt the milk cycle.Potato prices fall while costs riseThe European potato market is currently experiencing significant downward price pressure. The DCA EU-4 potato price has fallen to €2.62 per 100 kg, an 86.8% YoY decline, indicating a substantial oversupply relative to processor demand. Several frozen fries producers in Belgium and the Netherlands have reduced production or temporarily halted operations, suggesting that output has at times exceeded sales. As a result, demand for processing potatoes has weakened, putting further pressure on prices.Despite the collapse in potato prices, production costs remain influenced by other inputs. Sunflower oil prices have increased to €1,539.61 per ton (+8.2% YoY), while energy costs rose as well. Because frozen fries benchmarks incorporate these inputs alongside contract prices for processing potatoes, the DCA Fast Food Index has risen slightly to €627.17 per ton. Tight cattle supply keeps beef prices stable In the meat market, prices remain relatively stable, closing at €622.7 per 100 kg. However, this stability does not reflect a balanced market. Sales remain weak, but tight cattle supply across Europe and cautious short-term purchasing continue to prevent prices from easing.