Irish beef and livestock: value growth under tight supply

Irish meat and livestock exports recorded strong value growth in 2025, driven by higher prices in a context of structurally constrained supply, at a time when topics such as the EU–Mercosur agreement and live animal trade restrictions have gained increased attention. Beef export revenues increased sharply despite lower shipment volumes, while live bovine animal exports followed a similar pattern. These developments reflect tight cattle availability in Ireland and across the EU.Meat and livestock exports from Ireland totaled €5 billion in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year (YoY) increase, with beef accounting for 71% of total export value. In the beef segment, growth was primarily value-driven, with export revenues reaching €3.4 billion (+24% YoY), while volumes declined by 5% to 474,000 tons, confirming a tight supply within a high-price market.Irish beef exports remained concentrated in France, the Netherlands, and Italy in absolute terms. France recorded an increase of around 30%, while gains in the Netherlands and Italy were more moderate at approximately 20% and 14%, respectively. Germany also stood out, with export values up by around 32%. Among smaller markets, performance was stronger, led by Spain (+54%), followed by Sweden (+41%) and Belgium (+24%).Irish Exports of live bovine animals In parallel, as of October 2025, Irish exports of live bovine animals* totalled 56,545 tons (-6.2% YoY), while values increased by 23.2% to €266.1 million.Extra-EU volumes fell by 24.4% to 21,128 thousand tons, with export values down 10.9% to €92.8 million. Shipments to the United Kingdom declined by 3.6% to 19,004 thousand tons.By contrast, intra-EU exports expanded, with volumes up 9.6% to 35,416 thousand tons and values rising sharply by 54.9% to €173.3 million. Growth was driven by higher shipments to Italy (+42.9%), Poland (+42.4%), Greece (+43.5%), and the Netherlands (+7.8%). Spain was the only major EU destination to record a volume decline (–8.8%), although export values still increased by 25.5%.Resilience of demand for Irish exports The 2025 performance points to a relatively resilient demand profile for Irish beef and bovine animals, particularly within the EU. Despite higher prices, beef export volumes declined only moderately, while intra-EU live bovine exports expanded in both volume and value. This resilience reflects tight supply conditions across the EU, rather than price dynamics specific to Ireland, as animal health disruptions such as bluetongue further constrained supply in the second and third quarters of 2025. As prices were passed on to consumers, demand softened, but adjustments also occurred within the beef category, reflected in downtrading toward manufacturing beef.Tight supply drives prices Cattle availability remained constrained in 2025, with total Irish throughput declining to 1.59 million head (–11.7% YoY). The contraction was most pronounced for cows, where slaughter numbers fell by 21% to 353,670 head. Steers (-9.7%) and heifers (-5.5%) also recorded declines, reinforcing the overall tightening in domestic supply.This reduction is a longer-term structural shift rather than a short-term cycle. Across the EU, cattle numbers have been trending lower for several years, driven by regulatory, sustainability and demographic pressures.Outlook Looking ahead, Bord Bia expects 2026 supply to remain stable, with lower availability in the first half of the year and a modest improvement in the second half as larger cohorts of animals aged 6–12 and 18–30 months progress through finishing. Total throughput in 2026 is forecast in the range of 1.56–1.6 million head, suggesting that tightness is likely to persist.Beyond Ireland, EU27 beef and veal production is also forecast to decline from around 6.4 million tons in 2024 to approximately 6.3 million tons in 2026, with longer-term projections indicating a further reduction toward 6.1 million tons by 2030. A similar trend is expected in the UK, where beef production is projected to fall from around 878 thousand tons in 2025 to approximately 840 thousand tons by 2030.According to Joe Burke, meat and livestock specialist at Bord Bia, higher prices are a signal of scarcity, with the EU expected to become more dependent on imports over time.In this context, Ireland’s role is increasingly defined by its ability to deliver consistent and predictable supply, rather than large volumes, as buyers place greater emphasis on security of supply in a constrained market.For 2026, the Irish cattle supply outlook points to stability, supported by indications of further recovery in average carcass weights. At the same time, prices are expected to remain firm, although elevated price levels could weigh on farmers’ margins and increase substitution toward lower-priced proteins.Downside risks Concerns around increased beef imports from Mercosur persist, although near-term market impacts remain limited. The agreement includes a 99,000-ton carcass-weight equivalent beef quota, phased in over six years. Argentina and Uruguay are expected to be the main beneficiaries due to their access to high-quality quotas and closer alignment with EU production specifications, while Brazil’s participation remains constrained by higher compliance costs and regulatory requirements. As a result, Mercosur is viewed as a longer-term competitive factor, rather than a source of immediate pressure.Live animal exports also face regulatory risks linked to the proposed revision of EU Regulation (EC) No 1/2005 on the protection of animals during transport. In addition, the current relative price level of Irish animals is weighing on competitiveness across livestock categories. While Bord Bia notes that near-term conditions remain broadly supported by tight cattle supplies in Northern Ireland and continued demand in established export markets, the evolving regulatory framework represents a medium-term risk to live trade. Footnote *HS Code: 0102 covers all live animals of the bovine species, including cows, bulls, oxen, heifers, and calves.