Cheeseburger Menu Index: moves higher as prices rebalance

The Cheeseburger menu index tracks weekly movements in European agri-food markets through a fixed basket of ingredients used to produce a cheeseburger, a milkshake, and a portion of fries. In week 3, the index moved higher as a rebound in liquid dairy prices fed through to the milkshake index, while fries and meat posted more modest increases. The Cheeseburger Menu Index started the year on a positive note. In week 3, the index closed at 106.78, marking a 2.0% increase from the previous week. The upward movement was largely driven by a recovery in dairy liquids prices at the start of the year. While the Milkshake Index remains at a low absolute level, closing at 49.59, it recorded a sharp 16.2% week on week increase, reflecting the rebound in milk prices. The Fries index also edged higher, rising 1.4% to 100.09, and the Cheeseburger index itself closed at 100.74, up 0.9% compared to the previous week.Dairy market: liquid upward amid continued uncertaintyAt the beginning of 2026, dairy prices saw a turnaround from the continued declines in the liquid sector. Raw milk prices increased sharply in the first weeks of the year. In week 3, prices in Southern Germany closed at €19 per 100 kg, up 65.2% from the previous week, while Northern Germany prices reached €15.5 per 100 kg, a 55% increase. In the Netherlands, prices remained at a lower absolute level but still moved up, closing at €12.5 per 100 kg, up 8.7% week on week.By contrast, the powder and cheese markets were relatively stable. DCA skimmed milk powder closed at €2,075 per ton (+1%), while mild cheddar settled at €3,300 per ton, down slightly by 0.6%. Both mild cheddar and curd recorded modest declines in week 3, whereas other cheese categories showed small increases. Despite this recovery, the overall sentiment remains cautious within a fragile market, as expectations regarding the end of the oversupply of milk in the market are uncertain. Onion and meat marketsOne of the negative contributiosn within the menu came from the onion component. DCA onion benchmarks declined by 2.5%, with prices for 45–65 mm and 50–70 mm onions closing at €19–20 per 100 kg. The market showed a divergence by size this week. Limited availability of large onions for Southern Europe supported prices for sizes above 80 mm, which closed at €25–26 per 100 kg, while easing African demand is putting downward pressure on smaller sizes. In the meat market, O-grade cow carcass prices increased closing at €614.74 per 100 kg, up 1.13% week on week. The rise is unusual for the post-holiday period, when meat demand typically eases, but higher cattle purchase prices are pushing costs higher despite seasonally softer consumption.