Cheeseburger menu index: dairy weakness dominates

The Cheeseburger Menu Index shows weekly movements in European agri-food markets by tracking a fixed basket of ingredients used to produce a cheeseburger, a milkshake and a portion of fries. In week 51, strong pressure in liquid dairy markets continued to dominate index movements, driving the sharp decline in the milkshake index and pulling the overall menu lower. In contrast, sugar and meat prices showed only modest week-on-week declines, while fries remained largely stable.The DCA Cheeseburger Menu Index is a weekly cost change indicator developed exclusively by DCA Market Intelligence. It is based on market price quotations and designed to capture how different agri-food markets move collectively through a standardized meal basket.In week 51, the cheeseburger menu index closed at 103.38 (base: week 1 of 2025), marking a decline of 2.4% compared to the previous week. Within the menu, movements were uneven: the fries index remained broadly stable at 98.58, while the cheeseburger also showed little change, closing at 119.49. The downward pressure continued to come primarily from the dairy complex. The milkshake index fell sharply to 33.15, registering a weekly decline of 29.6%. At the same time, its coefficient of variation increased further to 17%, reflecting rising volatility driven by the pronounced downturn in liquid dairy markets. Price declines in dairy Close to the holiday season, and with logistical constraints more pronounced this year, dairy markets remain under strong pressure from oversupply. Raw milk prices have fallen to levels not seen for several years. In Southern Germany, milk prices closed at €4 per 100 kilos, representing a 75% drop compared to the previous week. In Northern Germany, prices fell to €5 per 100 kilos, down 63% week-on-week. While the Netherlands experienced the least severe decline, market conditions remain weak, with prices closing at €6 per 100 kilos, a decrease of 58.6%. Although skimmed milk is not directly included in the cheeseburger menu, the DCA skimmed milk benchmark for Northwest Europe closed at €0 per 100 kilos, underlining the extreme pressure in the liquid dairy segment. In contrast, the powder and cheese markets remained more stable. DCA SMP closed at €1,970 per ton, down 1% on the week, while Mild Cheddar prices continued to edge higher, closing at €3,315 per ton. Sugar and meat prices soften Sugar prices moved lower over the past week. On the futures markets, the ICE white sugar contract in London averaged €422.6 per ton in week 51, down from €424.2 in week 50, while sugar No.11 in New York fell to an average of €325.5 per ton from €327.8. Beyond futures, physical European sugar markets remain weak. The pressure is largely driven by a global production surplus, supported by strong output in Brazil and favorable production prospects in India and Thailand. In Europe, processors have announced significant reductions in sugar beet acreage for the coming seasons. In the meat market, O-grade cow carcass prices remained broadly stable in the run-up to Christmas, easing slightly from €610.23 per 100 kg in week 49 to €608.10 per 100 kg in week 50, a marginal week-on-week decline of 0.35%.