Australian dairy exports rise in October amid a weak milk pool

Australian dairy exports remained firm in October, rising by 2.26%, equivalent to 5.7 million kilos LME. In terms of commodity volumes, exports increased by 10.53% or 5.407 tons. Year-to-date (YTD), exports of butter and butteroil continued to decline, as did most powder categories except infant formula. Liquid milk, however, recorded solid growth. Australian Dairy exports October 2025 Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% Butter 2.257 463 -1.794 -79,49% Butter Oil 393 214 -179 -45,55% Cheese 14.093 16.088 1.995 14,16% SMP 14.204 15.097 893 6,29% WMP 4.002 3.934 -68 -1,70% Whey 2.048 1.525 -523 -25,54% Milk 12.892 17.553 4.661 36,15% I/F 1.001 1.358 357 35,66% Lactose 465 530 65 13,98% Total 51.355 56.762 5.407 10,53% The YTD export trends largely mirror the patterns observed in September, with one notable change: skimmed milk powder (SMP) fell into negative territory. This downturn was driven mainly by sharp reductions in SMP imports from China, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. Overall, YTD October exports declined by 7.86%, or 192 million kilos LME, compared with a contraction of 8.98% (189 million kilos LME) in September. In product tonnage, exports fell by 3.65% or 17.804 tons. Australian Dairy Exports YTD October 2025 Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% Butter 12.973 7.257 -5.716 -44,06% Butter Oil 3.392 3.116 -276 -8,14% Cheese 134.612 138.919 4.307 3,20% SMP 133.120 124.148 -8.972 -6,74% WMP 43.384 41.461 -1.923 -4,43% Whey 23.637 12.987 -10.650 -45,06% Milk 117.548 125.442 7.894 6,72% I/F 11.442 13.209 1.767 15,44% Lactose 7.452 3.217 -4.235 -56,83% Total 487.560 469.756 -17.804 -3,65% Challenging weather across key dairying regions and persistently tight farm margins have constrained milk flows throughout the year. Unfavourable seasonal conditions, ongoing farm exits, smaller herds, and continued financial pressure are expected to weigh on production in the new season as well. National milk output is therefore projected to contract from 0 to 2% in the 2025/26 season. Australia milk production YTD October 2025 (Kilograms) Month 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% January 727.200.000 708.200.000 -19.000.000 -2,61% February 601.400.000 572.400.000 -29.000.000 -4,82% March 596.100.000 595.900.000 -200.000 -0,03% April 591.800.000 594.000.000 2.200.000 0,37% May 645.100.000 620.300.000 -24.800.000 -3,84% June 596.300.000 565.100.000 -31.200.000 -5,23% July 579.400.000 556.300.000 -23.100.000 -3,99% August 681.900.000 661.500.000 -20.400.000 -2,99% September 812.500.000 808.800.000 -3.700.000 -0,46% October 917.800.000 895.900.000 -21.900.000 -2,39% Year to date October 6.749.500.000 6.578.400.000 -171.100.000 -2,54% Meanwhile, dairy imports into China have strengthened as local milk production weakens and domestic stocks are drawn down.The global economic environment has softened amid rising policy uncertainty and shifting government priorities. The International Monetary Fund expects global growth to ease slightly to 2.8% in 2025, although all advanced economies are projected to post increases.Reflecting Australia’s constrained milk supply, imports were notably strong in October, rising by 30.17% or 30 million kilos LME, compared with 21.65% or 17 million kilos LME in September. In product tonnage, imports increased by 29.96% or 5.103 tons. Butteroil was the only category to record a decline. Australian Dairy Imports October 2025 Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% Butter 2.416 3.402 986 40,81% Butter Oil 1.185 815 -370 -31,22% Cheese 9.185 11.678 2.493 27,14% SMP 691 782 91 13,17% WMP 2.866 4.021 1.155 40,30% Whey 691 1.439 748 108,25% Total 17.034 22.137 5.103 29,96% YTD October, Australian dairy imports remained positive overall, although butter, SMP, and WMP volumes fell compared with 2024. The growth in YTD imports strengthened further in October, increasing from 3.24% in September to 5.94%, equal to 57 million kilos LME. In product tonnage, imports grew by 6.54% or 10.808 tons. Australian Dairy Imports YTD October 2020 Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% Butter 25.201 24.439 -762 -3,02% Butter Oil 7.580 10.201 2.621 34,58% Cheese 84.979 93.879 8.900 10,47% SMP 10.200 8.457 -1.743 -17,09% WMP 32.401 30.930 -1.471 -4,54% Whey 4.970 8.233 3.263 65,65% Total 165.331 176.139 10.808 6,54%