Dairy futures show mixed results despite GDT weakness

Global dairy futures on the CME, EEX, and SGX presented a mixed picture during the fiftieth trading week of 2025, despite the bearish signal sent by the GDT early in the week.On the CME, most contracts moved higher, except for Whey C6, Cheese C1, and Cheese C2–C4, which remained unchanged or moved lower. CONTRACT CME Products Month 01/Dec 05/Dec ∆ ∆ % SMP December $2.523 $2.565 ↑ 1,68% January $2.470 $2.519 ↑ 1,99% February $2.447 $2.486 ↑ 1,58% March $2.414 $2.464 ↑ 2,08% April $2.431 $2.456 ↑ 1,07% May $2.467 $2.480 ↑ 0,51% Average $2.459 $2.495 ↑ 1,48% Butter December $3.368 $3.439 ↑ 2,09% January $3.384 $3.439 ↑ 1,63% February $3.439 $3.494 ↑ 1,60% March $3.748 $3.791 ↑ 1,15% April $3.859 $3.908 ↑ 1,29% May $3.968 $4.017 ↑ 1,25% Average $3.628 $3.681 ↑ 1,48% Whey December $1.463 $1.543 ↑ 5,46% January $1.466 $1.554 ↑ 6,05% February $1.433 $1.516 ↑ 5,81% March $1.400 $1.462 ↑ 4,45% April $1.389 $1.426 ↑ 2,70% May $1.389 $1.389 ↔ 0,00% Average $1.423 $1.482 ↑ 4,12% Block Cheese December $3.384 $3.384 ↔ 0,00% January $3.278 $3.239 ↓ -1,21% February $3.318 $3.294 ↓ -0,73% March $3.406 $3.399 ↓ -0,19% April $3.494 $3.505 ↑ 0,32% May $3.571 $3.598 ↑ 0,74% Average $3.409 $3.403 ↓ -0,16% Milk Class III December $34,74 $35,32 ↑ 1,65% January $33,69 $33,91 ↑ 0,65% February $33,99 $34,26 ↑ 0,78% March $34,55 $35,03 ↑ 1,40% April $35,45 $35,85 ↑ 1,12% May $35,96 $36,62 ↑ 1,84% Average $34,73 $35,16 ↑ 1,25% Milk Class IV December $29,70 $30,25 ↑ 1,86% January $29,63 $30,20 ↑ 1,93% February $29,54 $30,22 ↑ 2,31% March $30,67 $31,08 ↑ 1,37% April $31,37 $31,77 ↑ 1,26% May $32,05 $32,43 ↑ 1,17% Average $30,49 $30,99 ↑ 1,64% The CME spot market weakened across all products, except for the two cheese contracts, which remained steady. CME Spot market Products 01/Dec 05/Dec ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.615 $1.642 ↑ 1,71% Cheese Blocks $3.180 $3.042 ↓ -4,33% Cheese Barrels $3.351 $3.114 ↓ -7,07% Butter $3.186 $3.257 ↑ 2,25% SMP $2.513 $2.579 ↑ 2,63% Activity on the SGX was predominantly negative. Most contracts declined, although WMP C1–C3 recorded gains and C4 remained unchanged. SMP increased in C1, C2, and C4, while C5 remained stable. Liquid Milk ’28 also remained unchanged. These results indicate that, despite the weakness observed in GDT Event 393, sentiment on SGX dairy futures remained relatively hopeful, with selective upside in milk powder contracts. SGX Products Month 01/Dec 05/Dec ∆ ∆ % WMP December $3.240 $3.270 ↑ 0,93% January $3.190 $3.210 ↑ 0,63% February $3.195 $3.205 ↑ 0,31% March $3.210 $3.210 ↔ 0,00% April $3.295 $3.280 ↓ -0,46% May $3.335 $3.310 ↓ -0,75% Average $3.244 $3.248 ↑ 0,10% SMP December $2.490 $2.500 ↑ 0,40% January $2.470 $2.490 ↑ 0,81% February $2.575 $2.495 ↓ -3,11% March $2.520 $2.530 ↑ 0,40% April $2.560 $2.560 ↔ 0,00% May $2.590 $2.570 ↓ -0,77% Average $2.534 $2.524 ↓ -0,39% AMF December $6.465 $6.210 ↓ -3,94% January $6.130 $5.925 ↓ -3,34% February $6.080 $5.800 ↓ -4,61% March $6.030 $5.810 ↓ -3,65% April $5.900 $5.735 ↓ -2,80% May $6.010 $5.680 ↓ -5,49% Average $6.103 $5.860 ↓ -3,97% Butter December $5.670 $5.500 ↓ -3,00% January $5.525 $5.355 ↓ -3,08% February $5.490 $5.420 ↓ -1,28% March $5.490 $5.305 ↓ -3,37% April $5.445 $5.305 ↓ -2,57% May $5.425 $5.310 ↓ -2,12% Average $5.508 $5.366 ↓ -2,57% Milk Sept '26 $9,53 $9,35 ↓ -1,89% Sept '27 $8,68 $8,52 ↓ -1,84% Sept '28 $8,90 $8,90 ↔ 0,00% European dairy markets generally trended lower as well. All SMP contracts strengthened except C4, which declined. Whey prices increased in C2 and C6 and were unchanged in C1 and C3. EEX in EUR Products Month 01/Dec 05/Dec ∆ ∆ % SMP December €2.043 €2.058 ↑ 0,73% January €2.033 €2.071 ↑ 1,87% February €2.035 €2.041 ↑ 0,29% March €2.048 €2.040 ↓ -0,39% April €2.048 €2.093 ↑ 2,20% May €2.065 €2.113 ↑ 2,32% Average €2.045 €2.069 ↑ 1,17% Butter December €4.535 €4.300 ↓ -5,18% January €4.227 €4.038 ↓ -4,47% February €4.150 €4.021 ↓ -3,11% March €4.163 €4.053 ↓ -2,64% April €4.241 €4.114 ↓ -2,99% May €4.338 €4.174 ↓ -3,78% Average €4.276 €4.117 ↓ -3,72% Whey December €1.013 $1.013 ↔ 0,00% January €1.032 €1.045 ↑ 1,26% February €1.048 €1.048 ↔ 0,00% March €1.050 €1.025 ↓ -2,38% April €1.030 €1.025 ↓ -0,49% May €1.010 €1.013 ↑ 0,30% Average €1.031 €1.028 ↓ -0,23% Liq Milk December €50,49 €50,12 ↓ -0,73% January €48,67 €47,27 ↓ -2,88% February €46,86 €45,34 ↓ -3,24% March €44,90 €43,75 ↓ -2,56% April €42,00 €41,42 ↓ -1,38% May €41,58 €40,09 ↓ -3,58% Average €45,75 €44,67 ↓ -2,37% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1610 1,1644 >> 0,29% Products Month 01/Dec 05/Dec ∆ ∆ % SMP December $2.372 $2.396 ↑ 1,03% January $2.360 $2.411 ↑ 2,17% February $2.363 $2.377 ↑ 0,59% March $2.378 $2.375 ↓ -0,10% April $2.378 $2.437 ↑ 2,50% May $2.397 $2.460 ↑ 2,62% Average $2.375 $2.410 ↑ 1,47% Butter December $5.265 $5.007 ↓ -4,90% January $4.908 $4.702 ↓ -4,19% February $4.818 $4.682 ↓ -2,82% March $4.833 $4.719 ↓ -2,36% April $4.924 $4.790 ↓ -2,71% May $5.036 $4.860 ↓ -3,50% Average $4.964 $4.793 ↓ -3,44% Whey December $1.176 $1.180 ↑ 0,29% January $1.198 $1.217 ↑ 1,56% February $1.217 $1.220 ↑ 0,29% March $1.219 $1.194 ↓ -2,10% April $1.196 $1.194 ↓ -0,19% May $1.173 $1.180 ↑ 0,59% Average $1.196 $1.197 ↑ 0,07% Liq Milk November $58,62 $58,36 ↓ -0,44% December $56,51 $55,04 ↓ -2,59% January $54,40 $52,79 ↓ -2,96% February $52,13 $50,94 ↓ -2,28% March $48,76 $48,23 ↓ -1,09% April $48,27 $46,68 ↓ -3,30% Average $53,12 $52,01 ↓ -2,09% When comparing 2025 performance with the final trading session of 2024, a clear regional divergence emerges. Most commodities declined across the major markets, except for Whey in both the EU and the US, and Milk ’28 on the SGX. The United States and the European Union posted the weakest performance, with pressure seen across all major dairy products. New Zealand stood out as the comparatively stronger market among the three regions, although most of its products still recorded some degree of downside, aside from Milk ’28. Region Product Change 05/12/'25 VS 27/12/'24 USA CME SMP -17,82% BUTTER -38,67% WHEY -2,45% BLOCK CHEESE -17,82% MILK CLASS III -19,68% MILK CLASS IV -32,86% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY 0,33% CHEDDAR BLOCKS -25,85% CHEDDAR BARRELS -19,29% BUTTER -42,49% SMP -15,76% NEW ZEALAND SGX SMP -12,49% SMP -10,96% AMF -13,92% BUTTER -14,88% MILK '26 -6,03% MILK '27 -9,27% MILK '28 1,14% EU EEX SMP -28,47% BUTTER -46,59% WHEY 0,31% LIQ MILK -22,59%