Outlook Global Dairy Trade: record milk supply year

Since the last Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has remained bearish. Event 393 may provide further direction, while the international futures markets in the US, New Zealand, and the EU continued trending negative. In terms of milk, we are currently having a record year, with the main producers/exporters NZ, USA and EU seeing a combined incremental production YTD September of 1.07%, or 2.15 billion kgs. Compared with the winning prices of the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX Futures suggest a very likely downside if GDT results align with the futures, under the ‘all contracts’ and the ‘C2 method’. Key Market Insights: New Zealand Milk Production: Year-to-date October production is up 1.65%, or +264 million kgs. SGX Dairy Futures: Market sentiment has weakened over the past weeks. Average prices of all commodities declined substantially versus Event 392 winning prices. Volumes & Products: With the new season underway, offered volumes remain large but declie substantially vs the previous GDT event 392. Today’s auction volume is 33,818 mt, down -12.40% from Event 392 despite the presence of BMP. Following products decreased in offered volumes: AMF (-11.29%, Butter (-17.95%), Cheddar (-19.74%), SMP (-19.05%) and WMP (-11,66%). Exports: Year-to-date (October 2025) exports are up 0.78%, or 126 million kgs Liquid Milk Equivalent. Expected Price Impact: If Event 393 results match with SGX Futures, the GDT price index could fall by -6.80% under the “C2” method, and -4.90% under the “all contracts” method. The end result would be the result of losses in all products and would consist of AMF 32.7%, SMP 9.4%, Butter 33%, and WMP 25%. Composition of Volumes: Whole Milk Powder dominates offerings in Event 392, making up 58.79% of the total. Price shifts here will significantly affect overall market sentiment and the index. Global Outlook: Dairy futures in New Zealand, the US, and the EU have continued on a negative course. Futures Development: Since the last GDT, average futures (C1–C6) have moved lower compared with the AWPs in Event 391, except SMP. In summary, Event 393 of the GDT is characterized by a bearish outlook if we look at the futures markets. But, also judging by the current physical market on the ground, the odds look negative.