Pig market haunted by Murphy's Law

Everything that can go wrong, will go wrong, so states Murphy's Law. This is currently also true for the pig market. Just when prices seemed to stabilize, African swine fever surfaces in Spain. To what extent Spain will face export bans remains to be seen in the coming days. At this moment, there is a lot of uncertainty. Nevertheless, many (Asian) export markets implement an import stop when ASF is present in a country. This paints a gloomy scenario over the European meat market. Should there be any bans, it is likely that the European pork market will become further oversupplied. This would be another setback in a short time, after in September China imposed import duties on European slaughterhouses and the export ban on Van Rooi Meat. Overall, the mood in the market is subdued. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses are benefiting from some additional Christmas demand. The haunches became somewhat more expensive this week, as evidenced by the DCA mutations of pork parts. However, these are not heavyweight cuts within the carcass. The hams, ribs, necks, and shoulders dropped in price, as did the half carcasses. Currency headwinds Meanwhile, the euro has appreciated in recent days and analysts expect a further increase, as the American FED considers further interest rate cuts. The Japanese Yen is also historically weak compared to the euro. Japan is an important market for European pork, including high-quality cuts. Throughout 2024, the market accounted for over 23,500 tons. Two years earlier, that figure was still double amid a peak in demand. In recent months, the sales figures have consistently been below last year's level.More slaughteringDespite the fact that the pig supply is not large, the sales of meat pigs in the Netherlands are sluggish. However, the slaughter figures show that slaughterhouses are slightly increasing their pace, which is also fitting for this time of year. With 283,503 pigs, the slaughter figure was the highest since this spring. Traders are opting for stabilization next week. Thus, the DCA market price for slaughtered pigs remains unchanged at €1.50 per kilo and the quotation for live pigs at €1.15 per kilo.