The Netherlands no longer determines the price in the chicken market

The Dutch broiler sector has seen slaughter numbers decline for years. The focus on animal welfare and the tightened stocking requirements for barns has significantly impacted the number of chick slaughters over the past ten years. The year 2025 is shaping up differently so far: in the period until July, more chicks hung on the Dutch slaughter hooks, but this does little for the price. The size of the Dutch sector has now become too small to have a significant impact on the price. The Dutch broiler sector has seen slaughter numbers decline for years. In recent years, many Dutch broiler farmers have switched to concepts that require more living space and outdoor access for chicks. This development has led to a significant reduction in the number of available broiler places. Moreover, relatively more investments have been made in, for example, outdoor runs than in additional barn space. This has resulted in the number of chick slaughters, after a peak in the 2016-2019 period of around 605 million annually, declining significantly to 482.9 million in 2024. Slaughters recovering The large transition seems to be mostly behind. The number of annual slaughters is over 120 million less, or 20%, than nearly ten years ago. The completion of the transition on many farms, the fact that the profitability of broiler farms has been in order for a while now, and that current broiler prices have reached historically high levels seem to be triggers for farmers to slightly expand production again. According to figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the year 2025 is on track to achieve growth in the number of slaughters for the first time since 2018. Over the first 7 months of the year, Dutch slaughterhouses processed 288.8 million chicks. In 2024, there were 279.4 million in the same period: an increase of nearly 10 million animals or 3.4%. The total volume of produced meat reached 476,500 tons, about 3.2% more than in 2024. A sign that the slaughter weights were at approximately the same level. Market easily absorbs supply Due to the tight availability of poultry meat in the European Union, the increased domestic supply could be sold easily and at high prices. The prices for broilers reached great heights in recent months. More recently, the quotations are under pressure. A larger supply from Eastern Europe and the reopening of the European market for Brazilian poultry meat are leading to a clearly broader availability of poultry meat. In Eastern Europe, in countries like Poland and Romania, the number of slaughters is currently significantly higher than a year ago. Although insiders indicate that production is partly driven by the import of hatching eggs from Western Europe, there is an expectation of a significant wave of meat from that direction in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, the resumption of Brazilian import of poultry meat is also an important factor. Meat from poultry slaughtered after September 18, 2025, will be allowed back into the European market. According to insiders, this means that the first imports from Brazil are likely to be available in the European market this month. The Netherlands no longer a key factor The fact that Dutch production is a few percent higher than last year is, according to insiders, not really relevant to the pricing of regular chicks. While the Dutch poultry sector was an important factor in terms of size 15 to 20 years ago, that is no longer the case at this time. A change in the Dutch production volume of a few percent will hardly influence the pricing on the European continent.