Is the Dutch pig market stabilizing?

The Netherlands remains the country to watch. Meat prices continue to take a significant step downwards, while the pig price seems to be stabilizing somewhat. However, there is still one dissonant note. The carcass prices have dropped by 14.86 cents per kilo in the last four weeks, according to observations from DCA. This week, the decline was 4.39 cents. The price of necks took the largest step back, with a decrease of 16 cents. Additionally, the prices of bellies also dropped by 7 cents. Leg prices fell by 6 cents, while hams and ribs were 1 cent lower. Meanwhile, the price of lean cuts averaged a decrease of 1.67 cents. Slaughter prices also took a significant step back. While the price at the German VEZG dropped by 10 cents, or 5.1% in relative terms, over the past five weeks, the decline in the Netherlands was significantly larger. The DCA market price fell by 21 cents, or 10.9%. Furthermore, the Dutch quotation is one week behind the German price. Which direction the prices will take in practice remains to be seen. There seems to be a bit more calm in the market, but the picture remains erratic. Three out of four major pig slaughterhouses maintained stable prices this week. Meanwhile, Vion is the outlier with another reduction of 5 cents. Even from a European perspective, Vion is the outlier. Both Danish Crown and Tönnies have kept their pig prices stable this week, putting Vion at a noticeably lower slaughter price than its large foreign competitors. Stronger supply puts pressure Although the Chinese import tariffs remain the main reason for the lower pork prices, a structural imbalance between European demand and supply plays a significant role in the price declines. The pressure on the pig market remains strong, as the supply on a European scale is ample. In nearly all major countries, production has increased. Export levels remained high, but production numbers have risen even more significantly. For a long time, the supply in the Netherlands was on the tight side, preventing too much pressure on pig prices. This situation lasted until around week 36. Until then, the slaughter numbers were below last year's level. This was related to the warm weather, which hindered the growth of porkers. Now that the weather is considerably cooler, growth has increased again. As a result, the supply in the North European markets received a boost once more. For the Netherlands, this means that production has been slightly above last year's level since week 37. According to market insiders, the declining prices are doing little for consumer demand. This is different for the hospitality sector. Meat suppliers indicate that the sale of certain cuts is clearly on the rise. This mainly concerns parts used for the production of minced meat, such as lean cuts. This is partly due to the high prices of beef, which keeps the demand for mixed minced meat very strong.