United States continues to slaughter fewer cattle

The number of cattle slaughterings has further declined in July and August, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA has slightly revised downwards the forecast for beef production in 2025. Expectations for 2026 are slightly higher. Additionally, prices are breaking records again. The slaughter supply has decreased further in July and August. This is a normal seasonal pattern, but the supply was weaker than usual. In August, the number of slaughtered cattle decreased by 10% compared to the same month in 2024. This decline is calculated based on adjusted data, as 2025 has one less slaughter day than last year. Thus, August recorded the largest decline of this year. The number of steers and heifers was 4% lower than in July and 9% lower than in August 2024. These figures have also been adjusted for the number of slaughter days. Looking ahead, the number of slaughterings is likely to be lower, as fewer cattle are being fed for slaughter. The USDA has lowered the production forecast for 2025 by 45,000 tons to 11.71 million tons. This is due to a delayed slaughter pace in the second half of 2025, causing some market-ready cattle to shift to early 2026. For 2026, the forecast has been increased by 9,000 tons to 11.56 million tons, as animals that are held longer until the end of 2025 will come to market in 2026. Lower slaughter figures lead to higher imports Due to the lower number of slaughterings, beef imports in July 2025 were higher than the initial forecast. There has been a 13% increase compared to the same month last year. As a result, the department has raised the import forecast for the second half of 2025. The total annual import is expected to be 16% above the level of 2024. On the other hand, export prospects have been revised downwards, with a decline of 12% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. Longer fed cattle The most recent USDA Cattle on Feed report indicates that cattle are being fed for longer than ever measured. On August 1, 2025, 1.317 million cattle were in feedlots for at least 180 days. This amounts to 12% of the total inventory and is 60% more than a year earlier. The number of animals being fed for this long is even 8% above the previous record year 2020. The longer feeding period is primarily due to a lower supply of Mexican feeder cattle. With fewer new animals available, feedlots are holding their cattle longer to achieve heavier slaughter weights. This leads to a slower slaughter pace and more heavy cattle on the market, spread over a longer period. New price records In August, the price for slaughter cattle reached a new record of $5.36 per kilogram in the prominent 5-area marketing region, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado and Iowa/Minnesota. This is an increase of 2.5% compared to July and 28.5% higher than in August 2024. By early September, prices dipped slightly from the peaks of late August, but remained historically high. The forecast for the third quarter has been raised to $5.29 per kilogram, and for the fourth quarter to $5.38 per kilogram. For 2026, the forecast is now $5.48 per kilogram, a further increase of about 0.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.