Has cattle slaughter in the US hit a low point?

The cattle herd in the United States is at a historically low level, which is clearly reflected in the slaughter figures. The number of slaughters has been approximately 8% below the level of 2024 since early June. A closer analysis of the slaughter figures shows that there are varying developments among the different categories of cattle. In the past ten weeks (since the first week of June), the total number of cattle slaughtered (bulls, heifers, dairy cows, and other cows) has been, on average, about 8% below the level of a year earlier. As a result, beef production in the United States is significantly declining. For several years, farmers have been reducing their herds due to drought in key farming areas. In recent weeks, it seems that the decline year on year has at least not worsened. When will recovery take place? Particularly decrease in cowsA possible first signal that farmers might begin to expand their herds again could be a decrease in the slaughter of cows and heifers. The development of the slaughter figure indeed seems to diverge from the overall slaughter development. For instance, the number of heifers slaughtered in the past ten weeks (up to and including August 9) has decreased weekly by 9%. The number of cows slaughtered (other than dairy cows) decreased by almost 19% during this period. The number of bulls slaughtered decreased by only 6.4%. In other words: fewer cows and heifers appear to be delivered to slaughterhouses. However, it is too early to conclude that the herd is actually growing. There is no guarantee that the cows that seemingly have been slaughtered less in the past period will actually be used for expansion. It could be that the slaughter figures rise in the coming months. The livestock census in January 2025 will show whether the number of counted animals actually shows an increase. If that is the case, it will also only be modest. Looking from January 1 to now, the number of cattle slaughtered in the United States is 6.9% below the level of 2024. The beef production was 4.0% lower due to higher slaughter weights. Less drought issuesA reason for rebuilding could be that the number of areas affected by drought is smaller than it was a few years ago. In the growing season of 2024 and 2025, significantly fewer regions suffered from the drought issues we saw in previous years, as evidenced by the drought monitor from the USDA. A potentially better availability of feed combined with high cattle prices may trigger plans for long-term production expansion. Slaughters of dairy cows at a stable levelThe number of dairy cow slaughters is developing steadily. On average, 47,500 cull cows were slaughtered in the last ten weeks. Last year, there were about 48,000 in the same period. The number of dairy cows in the United States has been relatively stable recently, as indicated by recent USDA figures.