More oil through Hormuz and hopes for Iran deal push prices down

autious signs that Iran and the US are once again seeking rapprochement, combined with increased oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, are putting downward pressure on oil prices.A week ago, on 24 September, Brent crude stood at $106.60 per barrel. At the time of writing, on Thursday afternoon, 1 October, the oil price stands at $99.96 per barrel. Increased supply and hopes of a peace agreement between the US (and Israel) and Iran have pushed oil prices lower. However, crude oil is around $2 more expensive than yesterday. Whether the parties will find common ground remains uncertain.Half of the capacity of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is back in use after the pipeline was temporarily shut down due to damage caused by attacks. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have also increased sharply. An average of 13.1 million barrels per day passed through the strait last week, according to data from maritime data provider Kpler. According to Reuters, that is almost 80% of the volume that passed through the strait before the war with Iran.US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 922,000 barrels last week to 427.32 million barrels. The oil-producing countries are also expected to keep their production targets unchanged for November when they meet next Sunday, as they did for October. The Gulf states are currently falling short of their targets.There are cautious signs of renewed efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East. According to Tehran, the US has now officially responded to the Iranian proposal to end the war.Iran says it would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the US, among other things, ends the blockade of Iranian ports, lifts sanctions on Iranian oil exports and releases frozen Iranian assets. The country also says it would only then negotiate concessions regarding its nuclear programme. Trump had previously publicly rejected the proposal. Iran has not disclosed what the official US response entails.Diesel price also fallsDiesel costs €193.05 per 100 litres for deliveries of 4,000 litres or more on 1 October (LTO member price). That means the price has fallen by €3 compared with a week ago.The Netherlands wants to scrap gas storage filling targetsOn the TTF gas futures market, prices are reacting sharply to successive reports about the prospects of a peace agreement. Overall, the price at the time of writing stands at €73.76 per MWh, more than €1 lower than a week ago.The Dutch government wants to scrap the European filling targets for gas storage facilities ahead of winter. The Netherlands has relatively large storage capacity, far more than it needs for its own consumption. With Groningen gas and Russian gas having been replaced by LNG, there is also less need for storage facilities.In addition, the European gas market has become more resilient due to the increased share of LNG, according to a letter to parliament. In Europe, the disruptions resulting from the disappearance of Russian gas and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have so far mainly led to price increases, not shortages. Major LNG-exporting countries in the world are, for example, the US, Qatar and Australia, and new exporting countries such as Nigeria are being added. Dutch gas consumption has also fallen since 2022, from 40 to 30 bcm per year.The Netherlands subsidises the filling of gas storage facilities because it is not financially attractive for commercial parties. The costs are passed on to Dutch gas consumers. The government wants market participants to be required at European level to keep a proportion of actual consumption in storage.ElectricityDaily average electricity prices were high last week, ranging from €116.98 to €198.41 per MWh.