US expects smallest potato harvest since 2010

The United States are heading toward the smallest potato harvest in sixteen years. In many states, yields are turning out much lower. Coupled with the smallest acreage in nearly 75 years, this means that since 2010 not so few potatoes will be harvested. In the US as well, this growing season was mostly hot and dry. In addition, crops also suffered from smoke development caused by forest fires. This season, the potato acreage has decreased by 3.2% according to USDA data. Since 1952, not so few potatoes have been grown in the country. In total, this year involves 353,298 hectares of ware potatoes and seed potatoes. Yield 5.5% lowerNow that the harvesting of the main crop is about to begin, insiders have made an estimate for the size of the total harvest. They arrive at 17.89 million tons of potatoes. That is the smallest volume since 2010, when 16.63 million tons were harvested. The figure is close to the 2013 yield, when 17.92 million tons were harvested. If the figure becomes reality, the total volume will be 4.4% smaller than what was harvested last year. It is also 5.5% less than the five-year average. In all major potato states, a lower yield is expected this year, it is estimated. This is due to a combination of fewer hectares and weather impacts. The yield decline in Idaho is not the largest in percentage terms at 7%, but it is in absolute numbers. If this comes true, the yield will be 435,500 tons lower there, good for 5.84 million tons. That is the smallest harvest since 2011. July and August were very hot, which cost kilos. In addition, the acreage has decreased by more than 6,000 hectares. Yield declines It was also warm in Washington. Smoke development has also caused some growth slowdown. Insiders estimate the yield 1% lower than last year. The acreage there remained virtually unchanged. In Nebraska and North Dakota, the yield is estimated to be more than 12% smaller. In Wisconsin, the number three in potatoes, insiders estimate the harvest to be more than 5% lower. Despite the fact that in the US virtually every potato can be irrigated, the weather there also has an impact. The average yield is expected to fall to 455 cwt per acre. Converted, that is 50.99 tons per hectare. Last year that was 51.55 tons per hectare. It will be interesting to see how the US market develops during season 2026/27 and especially the one for the end product. Canada is the main supplier of fries to the neighboring country, but tensions between the two countries are increasing further and further. The exported volume of fries, from Canada to the US, has slightly decreased over a period of twelve months. In July, it was nearly 9% higher, compared with a year earlier. Canadian export Potato products and potatoes themselves are not covered by the recently announced US import tariffs, or earlier tariffs. Still, trade relations are under pressure. The North American potato sector is largely quite integrated. Potatoes and end products move back and forth and companies have facilities in both Canada and the US. That makes conflicts particularly difficult. It also means that Canada is trying to sell its product to other countries so as to become gradually less dependent on its southern neighbor. This requires a huge shift. Of the 1.419 million tons of fries that Canada exported in 2025/26, the US accounted for 83.5%, with Japan and Panama as numbers two and three. The US fries export itself can also be affected by a tighter availability of potatoes. In season 2025/26, more than 8% less fries were exported compared with the previous season. The US continues to maintain a very high price level, causing it to lose customers. In addition, competition in Asia and Central and South America is high. Lower import tariffs In July, the US government introduced new import tariffs for potato products. These range between 10% and 12.5%, depending on the destination. This means that European countries are dealing with significantly lower duties, which in some cases have even been halved. Total fries imports in 2025/26 are a little under 4% lower than in the previous season. Especially Belgium (-12%) and the Netherlands (-19%) had to give up ground. Imports from France increased by 33%, but this volume is much smaller. Prices of imported fries fell by an average of 4.2% last season. This steady price decline has ensured that fries were still imported into the US, despite the high import tariffs. It is possible that European exporters will be able to supply more to the US again next season, although the large EU exporters are probably not flush with fries this season either.