Europe faces smallest corn harvest this century

The grain market is under pressure, but beneath the surface concerns are increasing. While Turkey is once again trying to make shipping on the Black Sea safer, Europe is heading for the smallest corn crop of this century. France in particular is being hit hard by heat and drought, forcing the EU to import far more corn. The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1 lower at €243.50 per tonne. Wheat also edged lower on the CBoT and closed 3¾ lower at $7.27 per bushel. Corn also lost 3¾ cents and came to $5.30½ per bushel. Soybeans closed ¾ cent lower at $13.19¾ per bushel. Turkey has made a new proposal to Russia and Ukraine to end attacks on merchant ships. That is what the AFP news agency writes based on information from a Turkish diplomat. According to AFP's source, the Turkish proposal is inspired by the grain corridor of 2022. The grain corridor involving Turkey and the UN ensured that Ukraine could export grain via the Black Sea without ships being targeted by the Russians. After a year, the Kremlin withdrew from that deal. Alternatives Ships are now taking an alternative route along the coast of Romania and Bulgaria. Within that route there is a gap of maybe four or five miles, where the Ukrainian ship has to leave national territorial waters and sail through international waters. That is the risky part, according to the Turkish source at AFP. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has responded to the reports from Turkey. According to some experts, the proposal is not really new. Meanwhile, the attacks continue unabated. This morning, Russia hit a cargo ship that was in the port of Chornomorsk. A bridge that is important for Ukraine's grain exports to the ports on the Danube was also hit. Smallest harvest of the century France is heading for the smallest corn harvest in 50 years, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture, the USDA. The total French corn harvest is estimated at less than 7 million tonnes. That is 50% less than last year. The five consecutive heat waves and the drought that began in May 2026 have completely scorched the pastures and corn fields, writes FAS. The average corn yield in France is estimated at 6.5 topn per hectare, 10% lower than in the July forecast and 30% below the five-year average. The European corn harvest is estimated at 48.2 million tons. That is 4% less than in the July estimate. Compared with last season, the corn harvest is 15% lower. If the forecast is correct, this would be the smallest European corn harvest of this century. Corn consumption in the EU in FAS's estimate falls back to 70.7 million tonnes. That is the lowest consumption since 2012/13. Due to the smaller harvest, the EU will also need to import more corn. The USDA estimates that Europe will import 23.2 million tonnes. That is 22% more than last season and the largest import since 2018/19. Due to the tight corn balance, barley is an attractive alternative for European feed companies according to some sources. European barley has suffered much less from the heat. Another factor is that the Australian barley harvest could turn out better than previously expected. China is a major buyer of barley in Australia but last year we saw that China also bought decent volumes in France. The weather remains interesting In the US, the corn harvest in the north of the Midwest is being delayed by heavy amounts of rain that have fallen there. As a result, the corn ripens more slowly. Further south, it is warm and dry and combines can run according to some local sources. Drought is and remains an important theme in the US if we look at the latest drought monitor. It is favorable for the harvest of the last summer wheat, corn and soybeans but winter wheat growers in states such as Oklahoma, Texas and parts of Kansas are anxiously waiting for rain.