US dairy exports drop in July despite expanding milk output

US dairy exports in July 2026 delivered weak overall results compared the previous year, continuing the trend seen in June despite a few category-specific increases. SMP exports declined by 22.40%, WMP dropped by 40.09%, modified whey fell by 31.23%, and WPC80/WPI dropped by 28.15%. Conversely, categories that experienced volume increases during the month included whey, caseinate, cheese, butter, AMF (which surged by 253%), cream, fermented dairy, and fluid milk.Overall, July exports decreased by 3.51%, representing a reduction of 56 million kilos of liquid milk equivalent (LME), matching the 3.51% decline and 56 million kilo LME drop recorded in June. US dairy exports July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 59,318 46,033 -13,285 -22.40% WMP 6,433 3,854 -2,579 -40.09% Whey 17,851 28,533 10,682 59.84% Dairy blends/ mpc's 3,786 3,705 -81 -2.14% Mod. Whey 19,856 15,252 -4,604 -23.19% WPC < 80% 12,845 9,748 -3,097 -24.11% WPC80/WPI's 8,346 5,648 -2,698 -32.33% Casein 440 249 -191 -43.41% Caseinates 241 142 -99 -41.08% Lactose 43,998 34,445 -9,553 -21.71% I/F 2,033 1,850 -183 -9.00% Cheese 52,557 65,637 13,080 24.89% Butter 6,469 7,838 1,369 21.16% AMF 2,349 4,676 2,327 99.06% Cream 3,756 5,719 1,963 52.26% Fermented 7,016 7,475 459 6.54% Condensed 2,946 1,596 -1,350 -45.82% Milk 10,370 12,203 1,833 17.68% Year-to-date export volumes through July remained positive at 7.76% higher year-over-year, or an additional 793 million kilos LME, down from the 9.54% growth (823 million kilos LME) recorded through June. Growth was partially constrained by declines in several key categories, most notably SMP, most whey derivatives, and infant formula. However, earlier gains in other dairy product categories helped offset these reductions, maintaining overall positive trajectory for the year. US dairy exports YTD July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 392,334 367,803 -24,531 -6.25% WMP 22,066 25,466 3,400 15.41% Whey 112,405 174,347 61,942 55.11% Dairy blends/ mpc's 29,986 26,554 -3,432 -11.45% Mod. Whey 109,029 113,092 4,063 3.73% WPC < 80% 76,435 67,908 -8,527 -11.16% WPC80/WPI's 55,985 42,898 -13,087 -23.38% Casein 3,951 1,979 -1,972 -49.91% Caseinates 2,647 2,261 -386 -14.58% Lactose 252,309 247,917 -4,392 -1.74% I/F 14,646 11,125 -3,521 -24.04% Cheese 348,620 431,445 82,825 23.76% Butter 39,774 67,082 27,308 68.66% AMF 21,443 34,715 13,272 61.89% Cream 24,362 30,826 6,464 26.53% Fermented 41,425 50,409 8,984 21.69% Condensed 17,118 15,033 -2,085 -12.18% Milk 66,432 77,556 11,124 16.74% Continuing the trend observed from March through June, US dairy imports increased in July, expanding by 14.56% or 36 million kilos LME, representing a notable difference compared to the previous year. US dairy imports July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 201 76 -125 -62.19% WMP 1,076 1,642 566 52.60% Whey 2,290 1,602 -688 -30.04% WPC <80% 2,376 2,063 -313 -13.17% WPC80/WPI's 2,039 1,147 -892 -43.75% MPC 3,873 4,510 637 16.45% Casein 3,250 1,860 -1,390 -42.77% Caseinates 2,850 2,024 -826 -28.98% Lactose 189 130 -59 -31.22% I/F 2,520 4,464 1,944 77.14% Cheese 14,790 17,336 2,546 17.21% Butter 4,199 8,470 4,271 101.71% AMF 737 817 80 10.85% Cream 3,986 7,075 3,089 77.50% Condensed 5,156 3,555 -1,601 -31.05% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 5,266 6,017 751 14.26% Milk 1,741 927 -814 -46.75% YTD import growth turned positive in June at 0.26% (5 million kilos LME) and expanded further to 0.37% (7 million kilos LME) through July. Despite this overall expansion, cumulative declines were recorded across multiple individual import categories, including WMP, whey, WPC80/WPI, MPC, casein, caseinates, lactose, infant formula, AMF, condensed milk, and fluid milk. US dairy imports YTD July - Tons Commodity 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 1,661 2,031 370 22.28% WMP 14,935 11,329 -3,606 -24.14% Whey 14,055 12,679 -1,376 -9.79% WPC <80% 15,097 15,338 241 1.60% WPC80/WPI's 8,599 7,719 -880 -10.23% MPC 35,205 33,834 -1,371 -3.89% Casein 17,551 14,275 -3,276 -18.67% Caseinates 13,705 13,324 -381 -2.78% Lactose 1,757 1,621 -136 -7.74% I/F 36,690 19,870 -16,820 -45.84% Cheese 113,102 114,602 1,500 1.33% Butter 35,119 54,438 19,319 55.01% AMF 11,637 4,387 -7,250 -62.30% Cream 31,286 44,898 13,612 43.51% Condensed 29,801 28,821 -980 -3.29% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 36,087 45,653 9,566 26.51% Milk 14,715 11,265 -3,450 -23.45% Current US trade dynamics are not contributing much towards absorbing domestic surplus milk. YTD through July, US milk production increased by 1.68 billion kilos. Considering this expanding supply, the continued growth in imports remains notable, pointing to a potential disconnect between specific product demand and domestic production capabilities. US milk production Month 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% January 8,706,000,000 9,015,000,000 309,000,000 3.55% February 8,050,000,000 8,284,000,000 234,000,000 2.91% March 9,038,000,000 9,283,000,000 245,000,000 2.71% April 8,814,000,000 9,054,000,000 240,000,000 2.72% May 9,116,000,000 9,312,000,000 196,000,000 2.15% June 8,734,000,000 8,994,000,000 260,000,000 2.98% July 8,939,000,000 9,138,000,000 199,000,000 2.23% Total 61,397,000,000 63,080,000,000 1,683,000,000 2.74% In total, domestic consumption and inventory stocks expanded by 278 million kilos LME during the first seven months of the year, representing 0.44% of year-to-date July milk production. Ultimately, the US managed to export nearly 47.10% of its incremental milk production over this period.