Summer pressures UK and Irish milk production in July

Milk production in the UK and Ireland remained under pressure during summer. While stronger milk composition partially mitigated the decline in UK liquid milk collections, Ireland experienced both a weaker output and milk composition. At the same time, low farmgate milk prices and rising feed costs continue to pressure farmer margins, potentially limiting production in the months ahead.Milk collections in the United Kingdom (UK) declined by 2.4% from the previous year to 1.28 billion liters in July. This represented a gradual acceleration from the 2.1% annual decline observed in June, cementing the slowdown in production observed in the region during summer, with output likely impacted by the incidence of heatwaves and drought.The decline was partially mitigated by increasing fat and protein content in milk, with both rising by 0.6% year-over-year to 4.18% and 3.38%, respectively. The production of milk solids (MS) therefore faced a smaller decline than liquid milk, dropping by 1.8% to 99,408 tons in July.The strong performance in UK milk collections observed earlier this year consistently moderated until crossing into negative territory in June. From a 3.4% annual increase in the first quarter, milk collections declined by 1% in the second quarter. Cumulative output has moderated as a result, reaching 9.39 billion liters as of July, a 0.6% expansion compared to the previous year.However, the nutritional composition of milk has remained notably strong throughout the year, resulting in a clear expansion of MS production. Year-to-date, UK MS output increased by 2.4% year-over-year to 755,397 tons through July, a notable increase compared to the performance of liquid milk collections.Despite a slight increase compared to the previous month, farmgate milk prices remain under pressure, declining by 19.6% from the previous year to 35 pence per liter (ppl) in July. With prices remaining below the previous year’s level throughout 2026, this represents a continued challenge for farmer margins and reduces incentives to invest in further production expansion.At the same time, farmers’ margins are also under pressure from increasing feed costs, with most feedstuffs rising notably in July, including feed wheat (+12.5%), barley (+9.2%), soybean meal (+21.9%), rapeseed meal (+19.4%), and grassland hay (+19.5%). Moreover, summer weather conditions affected the availability of cheap pasture and forage for animals, increasing farmers’ reliance on purchased feed. In the short term, this could restrict feed supplementation or foster the culling of the dairy herd, resulting in a further decline in UK milk collections.IrelandThis trend has been even more notable in Ireland, where milk collections have recorded annual declines since April. July extended this trend for another month, with Irish milk output declining by 2.2% compared to the previous year to 982.7 million liters. Weather conditions were a likely driver of this decline, not only generating heat stress in animals but also pressuring pasture growth, which is the basis of feeding in the Irish production system.This could also be reflected in a deterioration in milk composition, with fat content dropping by 0.7% from the previous year to 4.18% in July, the first decline of the year. This was also the case for protein, which fell by 0.3% to 3.48% over the same period. This resulted in an annual decline in MS production of 2.7%, reaching 77,533 tons and falling proportionally more than liquid milk.In contrast with the main dairy producers in continental Europe, the sustained production pressure experienced by Ireland throughout the year has resulted in a 1.5% contraction in cumulative milk collections, reaching 5.57 billion liters as of July.That said, fat and protein contents were consistently higher than the previous year, except in July. This resulted in an annual 0.04% increase in MS output, reaching 443,631 tons, a notable result considering the overall decline in liquid milk collections. Farmgate milk prices were also under pressure, with Eurostat reporting a 21.4% annual decline to €40.69 per 100 kg in June, the latest information available. This decline was observed amid slight increases from some Irish cooperatives. According to Agriland and the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers’ Association’s (ICMSA) Milk Price Tracker, monthly increases were posted for June by cooperatives such as Dairygold (+0.5 c/L), Arrabawn Tipperary (+0.5 c/L), Strathroy (+1 c/L), and Aurivo (+1 c/L). Such increases would aim to provide some relief for farmers during a challenging season, characterized by difficult weather conditions and increased feed prices during summer.