Global Dairy Market H1 2026: tracking the extra milk

Global milk production increased by 3.07% (4.67 billion kgs) in the first half of 2026. Of that additional production, the group was able to export 61.57%, while stock levels increased in several key regions, creating a mixed outlook for the second half of the year. Country Milk production Incremental production Inc. Imports Inc. Exports % exp of inc prod Balance to Stocks & Domestic Use New Zealand 8.91bn +468m +46m +1.21bn 258.5% -695m USA 53.89bn +1.43bn +5m +823m 57.6% +610m Australia 3.18bn +88m +47m -94m -106.3% +229m EU 77.67bn +2.63bn -146m +970m 36.9% +1.51bn UK 8.36bn +63m -29m +28m 44.4% +6m Canada 4.86bn -5m +92m -59m 1,284.5%* +147m Total 156.86bn +4.67bn +15m +2.88bn +1.81bn Year‑to‑date (YTD) performance across major milk‑producing regions shows a mixed landscape shaped by climate pressures, shifting trade flows, global geopolitical unrest, and evolving domestic consumption patterns. Production growth remains uneven, with Canada experiencing contraction while the others expanded. Import and export dynamics highlight strategic adjustments as countries balance international demand with domestic supply.Dairy stock accruals in kgs LME per 30/6/’26New Zealand New Zealand recorded 8.91 billion kgs of milk production YTD June, supported by a strong incremental increase of 468 million kgs. Imports reached 46.17 million kgs LME, while exports totaled 1.21 billion kgs LME, reflecting New Zealand’s continued role as the major global supplier. The high export volume indicates sustained international demand for Oceania dairy products, though it places pressure on domestic stock availability. Stocks have gone down from 1.57 million kgs LME per 31/12/’25 to 403 million kgs LME per 30/6/’26, a drop of 74,30%. We leave changes in domestic consumption unchanged.United States The U.S. remains the world’s largest single-country producer with 53.89 billion kgs of milk. Incremental production growth was spectacular at 1.43 billion kgs, signaling robust growth. Exports totaled 823.22 million kgs LME, underscoring the country’s competitiveness during this period. Calculating with the usual domestic consumption change, stocks would have gone up by 935 million kgs LME per 30/6/’26.Australia Australia produced 3.18 billion kgs, supported by an incremental increase of 88.2 million kgs. Imports reached 47.17 million kgs LME, while exports showed a net reduction of 93.79 million kgs LME, indicating supply constraints that may be due to either uncompetitive prices for the world market and/or a shift toward prioritizing domestic markets. Calculating with the usual domestic consumption change, stocks would have gone from 199 million kgs LME per 31/12/’25 to 340 million kgs LME per 30/6/’26, an increase of 70,82%.European Union The EU reported 77.67 billion kgs of milk production, while incremental output increased by 2.63 billion liters. Imports recorded -146 million kgs LME, reflecting comparatively low pricing internally in the EU. The increase in incremental production aligns with favorable weather and relatively high milk prices. Calculating with the usual domestic consumption change, stocks would have gone from 3,06 billion kgs LME per 31/12/’25 to 4,05 billion kgs LME per 30/6/’26, an increase of 34,78%.United Kingdom The UK delivered 8.36 billion kgs of production, with incremental growth of 62.9 million kgs. Imports showed a net negative value of –29.47 million kgs LME. Exports increased by 27.91 million kgs LME, demonstrating the UK’s competitive pricing. Calculating with the usual domestic consumption change, stocks would have gone from 174 million kgs LME per 31/12/’25 to 494 million kgs LME per 30/6/’26, an increase of 183,72%.Canada Canada produced 4.86 billion kgs, with incremental production declining by 4.6 million kgs. Imports increased by 92.31 million kgs LME, while exports decreased by 4.6 million kgs LME. Canada’s supply‑managed system continues to prioritize domestic stability, resulting in fairly predictable stock levels. 147 million kgs LME went to stocks and increased domestic consumption.