Hot July does not end EU milk supply growth

The heat and drought did not throw European milk supply off balance in July. In Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium, supply remained above the level of a year earlier. France is the exception; there milk supply fell below last year’s level. However, production growth is declining in several countries. Not only in the Netherlands but also in neighboring countries, July was a record warm month with temperatures around 40 degrees on some days. Yet the milk supply figures do not show extreme declines, as the latest Eurostat figures show. Germany In Germany, 2.91 million tonnes of milk were collected in July. Compared with the same month last year, that is an increase of 5.7%. Growth is slowing somewhat, because in June there was still an increase of 6.4%. The more recent ZMB monitor shows that this declining trend continued in August, with production growth having fallen to just over 3%. For now, the figures therefore remain at a record high. There are reports from Germany of disappointing roughage yields. That could put a brake on milk production later in the year. France In France, supply is declining much faster. There was still a wide lead in the first quarter, but that quickly evaporated during the dry and warm spring months. In July, French processors collected 1.96 million tonnes, a decline of 0.3% compared with 2025. In addition to the drought, low milk prices and relatively high cattle prices also play a role. That combination may give livestock farmers a reason to cull cows earlier. The weekly supply figures from FranceAgriMer show that supply in August remains slightly below last year’s level. Poland The drought and heat have also affected Polish milk production, but for now supply remains above 2025. However, the lead is narrowing. In June, the lead was still 5%, in July it had fallen back to 1.6%, to 1.19 million tonnes. Reports from Poland and other Eastern European countries also indicate that roughage harvesting is turning out much lower than hoped. This could put a brake on milk production later this year. For now, Poland remains the third largest producer on a monthly basis, above the Netherlands, although the difference is narrow. The Netherlands Dutch milk supply came to 1.19 million tonnes in July. Growth compared with 2025 fell back to 2.8%. In June it was still 4.35%. Milk contents also took a hit due to the high temperatures during the month. In the Netherlands, relatively many cattle were slaughtered at the beginning of July. Higher cattle slaughter may put a brake on the recovery of milk supply in August. Belgium Belgian processors collected 400,390 tonnes of milk in July, an increase of no less than 8.1%. Compared with June, growth therefore remained fully intact, despite July going down in the books as very warm, sunny and extremely dry for the country. It is true that 2025 was a year in which supply in Belgium had fallen relatively more sharply than in other European countries. The figures for July in Italy and Ireland are not yet known.