GDT event 411: SMP leads gains as cheddar and AMF retreat

Event 411, the seventh GDT event of the 26-27 milk season, recorded an increase of +0,90%, coming from + 2,30% in the previous event. The real Average Winning Price however went to $ 3,910/mt, coming from $ 3,873/mt in event 410.Since the previous GDT event, the market had been giving mixed signals, and in part, GDT event 411 developed in sync with that. AMF down and Skimmed powders strongly up. The GDT result was positive while the signals that were given by the futures on SGX for both the ‘C2’ and the ‘all contracts’ method had been indicating much higher gains. New Zealand’s volume was strong at 40.451 mt.For the year-to-date June, New Zealand’s milk production has risen by 5.37%, adding an additional 468 million kilograms. YTD June stands at 9.186.000.000 kgs.GDT event 411 results of 1st September 2026 PRICE INDEX UP +0,90%, AWP $ 3,910 NZ Supply AMF DOWN -1,3%, AWP $ 5,917 ↓ BUTTER DOWN -0,8%, AWP $ 5,028 ↓ Butter Milk Powder UP +4,6%, AWP $ 4,136 ↑ Cheddar DOWN -6,6%, AWP 3,503 ↓ SMP UP +5,3%, AWP $ 3,695 ↑ WMP DOWN -0,1%, AWP $ 3,585 ↓ European and US Supply Butter (Solarec) UP +4,48%./ $ 4,965 (average price) ↑ AMF (Valley Milk USA) N.A./ N.P. ↔ Mozzarella UP +0,3% AWP $ 4.244 ↑ Lactose UP 2,0%/ AWP US $ 1,910 (Arla + USA) ↑ SMP W-Europe, Arla, UP +8,20%, AWP $ 3768 (average price) ↑ SMP W-Europe, DMK, N.S./ AWP N.S. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, UP +5,97%, AWP $ 3,843/mt (average price) ↑ SMP USA n.a. / AWP $ 3.773 ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec N.A. AWP $ 4.445 (average price) ↑ AMF, moved DOWN by -1,3%. The biggest loss in value was in C1. The Butterfat value in AMF is $5.947/mt on a 100% Fat basis. Butter saw a decrease of -0,8%. The Butterfat value in Butter is $ 6.095/mt on a 100% Fat basis. The difference in Butterfat value between Butter and AMF is now +$148/mt in favour of Butter. Cheddar moved down by -6,6%. SMP moved up by 5,3%. The biggest gain was in C2 (+5,80%). SMP is now prices higher than WMP. A rare feature that last ocurred in 2022.WMP moved down by -0,10% with the biggest loss in C1 & C4 (-0,60).A significant spread was observed between front-month and later-dated contracts in Cheddar. NZ front deferred Last vs front AMF 5865 5880 0,26% BUTTER 5061 5008 -1,05% BMP 4660 4655 -0,11% CHEDDAR 3185 3585 12,56% SMP 3655 3665 0,27% WMP 3565 3560 -0,14% European and US Supply:All non-NZ prices were up or unchanged, except those not offered this event. On the day of the GDT auction, the CME spot call session saw U.S. SMP settle at $ 4,189/mt., a strong result.The SGX market responded mixed in the days after the auction, mirroring the GDT results, with only WMP and AMF quotations decreasing. WMP 19/08/2026 02/09/2026 ∆ ∆% Sept 3675 3580 -95 -2,59% Oct 3740 3730 -10 -0,27% Nov 3835 3790 -45 -1,17% Dec 3880 3840 -40 -1,03% Jan 3955 3915 -40 -1,01% Feb 4005 3960 -45 -1,12% SMP Sept 3560 3665 105 2,95% Oct 3620 3750 105 2,95% Nov 3635 3785 130 3,59% Dec 3685 3800 150 4,13% Jan 3700 3830 115 3,12% Feb 3730 3880 130 3,51% AMF Sept 6050 5960 -90 -1,49% Oct 5850 5750 -100 -1,71% Nov 5825 5755 -70 -1,20% Dec 5820 5700 -120 -2,06% Jan 5815 5650 -165 -2,84% Feb 5805 5700 -105 -1,81% BUTTER Sept 4980 4990 10 0,20% Oct 4875 4900 25 0,51% Nov 4875 4900 25 0,51% Dec 4875 4920 45 0,92% Jan 4925 4945 20 0,41% Feb 4930 4950 20 0,41% Average prices C1-C6 19/08/26 02/09/26 ∆ ∆% WMP $3.848 $3.803 -$46 -1,19% SMP $3.655 $3.785 $130 3,56% AMF $5.861 $5.753 -$108 -1,85% BUTTER $4.910 $4.934 $24 0,49% The response on SGX do mirror the GDT results and is in line with the current mood of the market. YTD July, NZ is already ahead by 490 million kgs of milk vs the same period in 2025.With auction 410, Fonterra has continued the new season with a negative theoretical GDT result in terms of revenue. The current season up to event 411 has generated a negative result of -2,16%, or -16,0 million us dollars compared to the average prices of the 25/26 season.