EU countries fill gap in Black Sea exports

The export of soft wheat from Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Lithuania has started the grain season strongly. The four countries jointly exported more than 3.63 million tonnes to countries outside the European Union in the first nine weeks of the 2026/27 season. That is 49% more than in the same period last season. The growth coincides with major problems in Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. Romania and Bulgaria in particular benefit from their location around the Black Sea. Lithuania serves partly the same African destination markets from the Baltic ports. In doing so, the four countries fill part of the space left by Russia and Ukraine. Romania is by far the largest exporter. In the first nine weeks, nearly 2.33 million tonnes of soft wheat were exported. That is 570,000 tonnes, or 32%, more than a year ago. Lithuania follows with more than 667,000 tonnes. Exports have thus more than doubled. Bulgaria also more than doubled its exports. Poland exported 55% more. Lithuania focuses on Africa This season Lithuania shipped almost all wheat to Africa. Nigeria is by far the most important destination with more than 242,000 tonnes. It is followed by South Africa with 110,000 tonnes, Senegal with 71,000 tonnes and Cameroon with more than 44,000 tonnes. Benin, Ivory Coast, Congo and Ghana also bought Lithuanian wheat. In doing so, Lithuania is competing in markets where Russia, Ukraine and other exporters from the Black Sea region are normally also active. The larger export from EU countries coincides with disappointing Russian exports. Russia exported an estimated 1.6 million tonnes of wheat in July, compared with 2.1 million tonnes a year earlier. For August, SovEcon expects 1.9 million tonnes. Last year, exports in that month came to 4.5 million tonnes. The five-year average is about 5 million tonnes. Lowest level in ten years This means Russian wheat exports in August could reach their lowest level in ten years. Logistics are faltering due to attacks on ports, grain terminals and ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Freight and insurance costs have also risen. Ukraine also brought less wheat to the world market. The country exported a little under 1.6 million tonnes by the end of last week, 38% less than in the same period last season. Due to Russian attacks, about a third of Ukraine's grain export capacity has been lost. Alternative routes via the Danube, rail and the Romanian port of Constanța can only partly make up for that loss. Romania serves traditional markets The destinations of Romanian wheat support the picture that the country is taking market share from Russia and Ukraine. Romania mainly supplied Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Jordan. These are important sales markets for wheat from the Black Sea region. 674,000 tonnes went to Saudi Arabia in the first nine weeks. Algeria bought 445,000 tonnes and Jordan nearly 262,000 tonnes. In addition, Romania sold significant volumes to Turkey, South Korea and Bangladesh. Bulgaria was especially active in Asia. Indonesia bought nearly 124,000 tonnes and Vietnam 117,000 tonnes. In addition, more than 68,000 tonnes went to Algeria. Besides less Russian competition, Bulgarian exports also benefit from their location on the Black Sea. Poland also exports to the US Poland is focusing more strongly on Africa. Nigeria bought more than 53,000 tonnes, followed by Cameroon, Mali, Congo and Gabon. Also notable is the export of nearly 64,000 tonnes to the United States. The faltering export from Russia and Ukraine is an important explanation for the strong export start of the four EU countries. Lower availability, higher freight costs and greater risks for shipping offer opportunities to other exporters. This applies most clearly to Romania and Bulgaria. They are located on the Black Sea, have a relatively short shipping route to the Middle East and North Africa and serve largely the same buyers. Different shipping route For Lithuania the link is less direct. Wheat from the Baltic ports has a different shipping route, but does compete with Russian and Ukrainian wheat in African destinations. The strong growth to Nigeria, Senegal and other countries in West Africa suggests that buyers are spreading their purchases across more origins. Traders expect that, due to the problems in the Black Sea, more grain will for the time being be exported via ports in the Baltic states. Russian exporters are being forced to export large volumes via Latvia, for example. Requests for rail transport support this assessment.