What does Putin think of Turkey's grain deal proposal?

The grain market is once again focused on uncertainty around exports from the Black Sea region. Turkey is trying to get Russia and Ukraine back to the table for a grain deal. Whether Putin is open to that remains to be seen. Zelensky is meanwhile seeking closer ties with Trump. The grain market, and especially the wheat market, is reacting nervously. The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €2.50 lower at €237 per tonne. The December contract, which is traded the most, closed €5.75 lower at €245.25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 10½ cent lower at $7.56½ per bushel. Corn showed a modest gain of 3 cent to $5.15 per bushel. Soybeans closed 1 cent lower at $12.75¼ per bushel. The supply of grain from Russia and Ukraine remains a hot issue. Turkey, which maintains contacts with both Russia and Ukraine, came yesterday with a plan to get grain exports from both countries moving again. Turkey's proposal resembles the Black Sea Grain Initiative of July 2022. According to the Turkish foreign minister, the escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine are a threat to both maritime security and the global food supply. We have drawn up a proposal and are in contact with both parties, Fidan said to Reuters. As in the past, we hope to reach an agreement similar to the grain deal, if the necessary conditions arise. Whether those necessary conditions will arise remains to be seen. Some sources report that Putin would be little inclined toward the Turkish proposal. Today, there is also a meeting scheduled between Erdogan and Putin. Exports take a big hit Russian grain exports fell significantly in August. According to SovEcon, Russia exported 2 million tonnes of wheat last month. That is 56% less compared with August 2025. For September, SovEcon expects exports of between 1.8 and 2.2 million tonnes. The market agency calculated that there is a surplus of 20 to 25 million tonnes of wheat hanging over the Russian market. That is affecting domestic prices. Since June, the price of wheat in Russia has fallen by about 36% according to SovEcon. Ukraine is also struggling to sell grain on the world market. Some sources expect Ukraine's exports in August to be about half of normal. For Ukrainian access to the Danube, the main alternative to exports over the Black Sea, about eighty ships are waiting. Ukrainian president Zelensky spoke yesterday with Trump about support and about a possible visit by the US president to Ukraine to discuss peace. A lot could change in September, several media outlets quote Zelensky as saying. Whether grain from the Black Sea region becomes available in the short term or not is a major uncertain factor. Russia in particular has had a good wheat harvest. If ships can quickly sail safely across the Black Sea again and if the damage to the grain terminals can be repaired in the short term, that would have a fairly price-lowering effect on the market. If access remains limited, the wheat price could continue to rise according to some analysts. Harvest continues In the US, the spring wheat harvest is continuing at a rapid pace, as we can read in this week's USDA Crop Progress report. Of the spring wheat acreage, 77% has been threshed compared with 69% last year this week and 68% in the five-year average. The USDA made no major adjustments to the condition of corn and soybeans in the US. Of the corn acreage, 57% is rated good or excellent. That is the same as last week. Soybeans have declined somewhat, with 58% of the acreage rated good or excellent compared with 60% last week.