GDT Event 411: Futures point to stronger powder prices

Since the last Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has been mostly up in all three trading blocks. Event 411 may provide further direction. Compared with the winning prices of the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX Futures suggest a likely strong increase if GDT results align with the futures under the ‘All contracts’ method and when using the ‘C2 contracts method’. Key Market Insights:1. New Zealand Milk Production: July production is up 7,03% or + 22 million kgs. The YTD July production stands at + 5.43%, or + 490 million kilos.2. SGX Dairy Futures: Market sentiment has been firmer for NZ dairy futures over the past weeks. In general, powders are up while butter fat feels weaker.3. Volumes & Products: Volumes are strongly up from event 410 by 8,31% or 3.104 mt and stand at 40.451 mt.4. Exports: Year-to-date (July 2026) exports are up 10,31%, or 1,29 billion kgs LME. 5. Expected Price Impact: If Event 411 results match with SGX Futures, the GDT price index could change by +7,90% under the “C2” method and +6,70% under the “all contracts” method.6. Composition of Volumes: Whole Milk Powder dominates offerings in Event 411, making up 59% of the total. Price shifts here will significantly affect overall market sentiment and the index. On the SGX futures market WMP saw mostly increases since the previous GDT event.7. Global Outlook: Dairy futures in the USA and EU exchanges also saw stronger sentiment.8. Futures Development: Since the last GDT, average Butter and AMF futures (C1–C6) have traded lower compared to the AWPs in Event 410. While powders saw a bit of upside. AMF -2,84% SMP 8,08% Butter -3,29% WMP 8,28% In summary, Event 411 of the GDT is characterized by an optimistic outlook when we look at the futures markets.