Is East Africa a new market for European wheat?

The summer is not over yet, but we can now say that we have had fairly extreme weather in parts of Europe. The IGC has not gone unnoticed either, and especially because of the heat and drought in Europe, the institution has once again had to lower global grain production. Due to the unrest in the Black Sea region, trade flows are being redirected. We are seeing signs of this in both Europe and Australia. In the US, the Crop Tour has reached the real corn states. In Illinois in particular, yields do not seem to be meeting expectations. The September wheat contract on the Matif closed unchanged yesterday at €227,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 2½ cents higher at $6.82¾ per bushel. Corn was moving up more strongly with a gain of 5¾ cents to $4.78¾ per bushel. Soybeans gave back some ground in the past trading session and ended 1½ cents lower at $12.20¾ per bushel. The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered total global grain production for the 2026/27 season by 6 million tonnes from the previous estimate in July to 2.416 million tonnes. That is still the second largest ever according to IGC statistics. The cut in the harvest forecast is mainly due to disappointing yields in the EU, the IGC writes. Due to the persistent heat, crops on our continent are suffering. Total grain consumption has been lowered by 3 million tonnes to 2.444 million tonnes. Consumption therefore exceeds production and we are drawing down stocks. Grain ending stocks have therefore been lowered by 4 million tonnes to 606 million tonnes. Logistical bottleneck The problems with grain exports from the Black Sea region are far from solved. The effects are gradually becoming visible in trade flows. Reuters reports based on LSEG data that in France, for the first time in eighteen years, a ship is being loaded with wheat destined for Sudan. It concerns about 67,000 tonnes of wheat. That is not yet a very large volume, but various traders and analysts are curious whether more countries in East Africa will follow Sudan's example. East Africa is traditionally a region that relies quite heavily on grain from Russia. In Australia too, traders are noticing interest from East Africa. That is what Bendigo Bank Agribusiness at least reports in a market update. The wheat stock available for export toward the end of the Australian season is limited, the bank notes. Although Australian wheat may be able to offset the loss of exports from the Black Sea region, our marketing season is already well advanced and we have limited quantities of high-protein wheat that buyers in this region are usually looking for, the bank says in the report. Prices for Australian wheat are also moving up slightly. The damage has been done in corn The weather here, but also in France and Germany, is now somewhat cooler and there has also been rain. For the later crops including corn, that will no longer make the difference, several analysts warn. Europe is expected to become more dependent on imports, especially for corn, according to various experts. In the US, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour visited western Iowa and Illinois. For Illinois, the average corn yield across the 217 fields visited comes to 184,2 bushel per acre (about 12,4 tonnes per hectare). Last year the yield in the Crop Tour was 199,6 bushel per acre and the three-year average stands at 199,2 bushel per acre. In two of the three regions visited in western Iowa, yields in the Crop Tour are around the three-year average of about 190 bushel per arce. In one district, the corn yield is below last year's level, but still above the three-year average.