SMP leads a positive GDT 410 event

Event 410, the sixth GDT event of the 2026/27 milk season, recorded an increase of 2.3%, compared with a marginal increase of 0.15% in the previous event. The actual Average Winning Price, however, increased from $3,778 per ton to $3,873 per ton in Event 410, representing a gain of 2.51%.Since the previous GDT event, the market had been giving mixed signals, and Event 410 developed broadly in line with this trend. Butterfats moved lower, while powders recorded strong gains. Although the overall GDT result was positive, futures prices on SGX, based on both the C2 and all-contracts methods, had indicated that stronger gains could be expected.New Zealand's volume was strong at 37,347 tons.Year-to-date through June, New Zealand's milk production increased by 5.37%, adding 468 million kilo compared with the same period last year. Total milk production for the year to date through June stood at 9.186 billion kilo.GDT event results PRICE INDEX DOWN +2,3%, AWP $ 3,873 NZ Supply AMF DOWN -6,0%, AWP $ 5,993 ↓ BUTTER DOWN -2,0%, AWP $ 5,090 ↓ Butter Milk Powder DOWN -3,5%, awp $ 4,552 ↓ Cheddar UP + 0,6%, AWP 3,744 ↑ SMP UP +7,6%, AWP $ 3,502 ↑ WMP UP + 3,0%, AWP $ 3,591 ↑ European and US Supply Butter (Solarec) UP +3,15%./ $ 4,752 (average price) ↑ AMF (Valley Milk USA) N.A./ N.P. ↔ Mozzarella UP +6,1% AWP $ 4.234 ↑ Lactose UP 3,2%/ AWP US $ 1,807 (Arla + Fonterra USA) ↑ SMP W-Europe, Arla, UP +6.40%, AWP $ 3482 (average price) ↑ SMP W-Europe, DMK, N.S./ AWP N.S. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, UP +7.83%, AWP $ 3,627/mt (average price) ↑ SMP USA n.a. / AWP n.a. ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec UP 6.89% . AWP $ 4.345 (average price) ↑ AMF moved down by 6.0%. The largest decline in value was recorded in C4. The butterfat value in AMF is $6,023 per ton on a 100% fat basis.Butter decreased by 2.0%. The butterfat value in butter is $6,170 per ton on a 100% fat basis. The difference in butterfat value between butter and AMF is now $147 per ton in favour of butter.Cheddar increased by 0.6%.SMP increased by 7.6%, with the largest gain recorded in C1 at 8.6%.WMP increased by 3.0%, with the largest gain recorded in C2 at 3.3%.A significant spread was observed between front-month and later-dated contracts, particularly for Cheddar and AMF. NZ front deferred Last vs front AMF 6200 5875 -5.24% BUTTER 5145 5150 0.10% CHEDDAR 3635 3759 3.41% SMP 3530 3490 -1.13% WMP 3595 3580 -0.42% EUROPEAN AND US SUPPLYAll non-New Zealand prices were either higher or unchanged, excluding products that were not offered at this event. On the day of the GDT auction, the CME spot call session saw US SMP settle at $4,064 per ton, representing a strong result.In the days following the auction, the SGX market showed a mixed response, broadly reflecting the GDT results. Only AMF and butter quotations for C2 through C6 declined. WMP 05/08/2026 19/08/2026 ∆ ∆% Aug 3470 3497 27 0.78% Sept 3545 3675 130 3.67% Oct 3600 3740 140 3.89% Nov 3660 3835 175 4.78% Dec 3705 3880 175 4.72% Jan 3760 3955 195 5.19% SMP Aug 3240 3353 113 3.49% Sept 3305 3560 255 7.72% Oct 3355 3620 265 7.90% Nov 3370 3635 265 7.86% Dec 3395 3685 290 8.54% Jan 3445 3700 255 7.40% AMF Aug 6515 6323 -192 -2.95% Sept 6225 6050 -175 -2.81% Oct 6095 5850 -245 -4.02% Nov 6055 5825 -230 -3.80% Dec 5925 5820 -105 -1.77% Jan 6000 5815 -185 -3.08% BUTTER Aug 5195 5200 5 0.10% Sept 5000 4980 -20 -0.40% Oct 4900 4875 -25 -0.51% Nov 4900 4875 -25 -0.51% Dec 4900 4875 -25 -0.51% Jan 4850 4925 75 1.55% Average prices C1-C6 05/08/26 19/08/26 ∆ ∆% WMP $3,623 $3,764 $140 3.87% SMP $3,352 $3,592 $241 7.18% AMF $6,136 $5,947 -$189 -3.07% BUTTER $4,958 $4,955 -$3 -0.05% The mostly positive response on SGX mirrors the GDT results and is consistent with the current market sentiment. Six months into the calendar year, New Zealand milk production is already 468 million kilo ahead of the same period in 2025. With Event 410, Fonterra has continued the new season with a negative theoretical GDT revenue result. Through Event 410, the current season has generated a negative result of 2.81%, equivalent to approximately $16.3 million less revenue compared with the average prices achieved during the 2025/26 season.