Too wet or too dry across key US arable regions

The export of grain from the Black Sea region remains difficult. Grain ships are targeted by both the Russian and Ukrainian armies. The export expectations for both countries are therefore being adjusted downward further and further. In the US, the yields of corn and soybeans are disappointing. That is at least the picture that emerges from the first data of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €4 higher at €227.25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 15¾ cent higher at $6.80¼ per bushel. Corn also moved higher with a gain of 9¾ cent to $4.73 per bushel. Soybeans closed 21½ cent higher at $12.22¼ per bushel. Things remain unsettled in the Black Sea region. The Russian army claims to have hit two dry bulk carriers near the port of the Ukrainian Odessa. In addition, Russia is said to have hit fuel tanks near Chornomorsk. According to various sources, Ukraine has hit five grain ships near Novorossiysk. All grain terminals at the port of Novorossiysk remain closed for now. War costs exports Rusagrotrans has lowered the export expectation for wheat exports to 1.8 million tonnes. That is about 60% less than August last year and would mean the smallest export since 2010. Exports are also disappointing in Ukraine. In the first half of August, 794,000 tonnes of agricultural goods were exported compared with 3.67 million tonnes in the entire month of July. Market bureau Asap fears that Ukrainian wheat exports over the entire season could come out much lower due to the Russian attacks. For the 2026/27 season, the export range could amount to between 5 and 10 million tonnes, according to the bureau. Over the last ten years, wheat exports from Ukraine were between 14 and 21 million tonnes. In the latest Wasde report, USDA lowered the export expectation for wheat from Ukraine by 1 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes. Lower corn estimate In the US, players in the grain market are somewhat surprised by the rather disappointing yields of corn and soybeans in the first results of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. For Indiana, the average yield on the 181 fields visited comes to 183.5 bushels per acre (12.3 tonnes per hectare). Last year, the Crop Tour came to a yield of 193.8 bushels per acre and the three year average stands at 187.4 bushels per acre. In Nebraska, the yield is somewhat lower compared with last season. The average yield in the 323 fields visited this season is 163.6 bushels per acre compared with 179.5 last season and 173.3 bushels per acre in the five year average. Later this week, the results of the Crop Tour in the important states of Illinois and Iowa will be released. China buys soybeans The soybean market is receiving support from strong demand for soybeans from the US by China. In the run up to the visit of Chinese president Xi to Washington, Beijing seems to want to win over US president Trump by buying soybeans. There are also concerns about soybean yields in the US. In addition to corn, the Crop Tour also visited soybean fields. No yield estimate was made for soybeans, but the pods were counted. The number of pods in 3 by 3 foot squares is lower than last year. In Nebraska, tour participants saw relatively much heat damage in the fields. In Indiana, water damage was observed.