Positive outlook expected at the GDT Event 410

Since the last Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has been mixed across all three trading regions, with the notable exception of SMP, which has risen sharply. Event 410 may provide further direction for the market.Compared with the winning prices from the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX futures suggest a potentially strong increase if the GDT results align with futures prices under both the “All Contracts” and “C2 Contracts” methods.Key market insightsNew Zealand milk production: June milk production increased by 4.58%, or 12 million kilo. Year-to-date production through June is up 5.37%, equivalent to an increase of 468 million kilo.SGX dairy futures: Market sentiment across New Zealand dairy futures has been mixed in recent weeks. Overall, powder prices have strengthened, while butterfat prices have declined.Volumes and products: Volumes are unchanged from Event 409 and stand at 37,346 tons.Exports: Year-to-date exports through June 2026 are up 16.48%, equivalent to an increase of 1.2 billion kilo LME.Expected price impact: If Event 410 results align with SGX futures, the GDT Price Index could increase by 5.95% under the “C2” method and by 5.20% under the “All Contracts” method.Composition of volumes: Whole Milk Powder (WMP) dominates the offerings in Event 410, accounting for 59% of the total volume. Price movements in WMP will therefore have a significant impact on overall market sentiment and the GDT Price Index. On the SGX futures market, WMP prices have mostly increased since the previous GDT event.Global outlook: Dairy futures on US and EU exchanges have shown weaker sentiment.Futures development: Since the previous GDT event, average butter and AMF futures prices (C1–C6) have traded below the average winning prices (AWPs) recorded in Event 409, while powder futures have shown some upside. AMF -9.00% SMP 8.80% Butter -5.89% WMP 7.46% In summary, the outlook for GDT Event 410 is relatively optimistic based on developments in the futures markets, particularly the recent strength in powder prices.