Geopolitical unrest keeps energy prices high

The developments on the geopolitical stage, and especially the war in the Middle East, continue to dominate the energy market. Free passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains a major problem. The weather has indeed turned this week, but winter still feels far away. In the gas market, players think differently about that. There were already not many ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and over the past weekend there were even fewer. According to Kpler data, 5 ships sailed through the strait on Saturday and none on Sunday. Last weekend there were still 31 ships passing. Shipping has practically come to a standstill after last week three ships of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Some ships try to get into or out of the Persian Gulf unnoticed by switching off their transponders. According to some sources, it is mainly ships to and from Iran that are trying to circumvent the blockade in this way. Pressure Washington is trying to increase the pressure on Iran by saying that they can sustain the blockade indefinitely. A little out of character for Trump, there are indeed some sounds coming from the White House and even from the president himself that the American citizen should prepare for higher gasoline prices. Meanwhile, Iran states that America must accept Tehran's demands before shipping traffic can resume. That is what the Iranian foreign minister told local media. Trump would not be Trump if he let such statements pass unnoticed. Despite the unrest, Brent crude is not showing any major fluctuations. The $90 per barrel mark is getting close, but for now this line is not being crossed. Natural gas remains expensive. The European benchmark, the TTF, remains above €60 per MWh. Players in the European gas market are getting nervous about the relatively low fill levels of gas storage facilities. It is now mid-August and storage in the EU is only 61% full. By comparison, last year that percentage was 73%. Competition on the global market is intense. Around the Persian Gulf there are several large LNG production plants, but they are difficult or impossible for tankers to reach. Like gas and oil, electricity also remains expensive. The Epex Spot Day Ahead closed yesterday at €176.75 per KWh. That is the highest price in a month and a half. Warm weather and extra electricity consumption due to air conditioning, among other things, were cited by various analysts in recent weeks as an important factor behind the relatively high electricity prices. Now that it is a bit cooler in large parts of Europe, the electricity price is rising further. Low water levels, which mean less cooling water is available for power plants and make transporting coal along the rivers more difficult, continue to cause problems for electricity production.