German potato harvest attacked from two sides

Not only the drought is causing Germany to head for a smaller potato harvest. Statistics office Destatis has also further lowered its forecast for the area this year. The potato production is being 'attacked' from two sides. This could result in the country lifting more than 2 million tonnes fewer potatoes this autumn. The German statistics office Destatis has revised its acreage figure for potatoes. It does not come to 280,000 hectares, but to 268,000 hectares. That makes the area 11.2% smaller than in 2025. Incidentally, these are still provisional figures. It has also not yet published separate figures for the different varieties. NEPG assumes a reduction of 11% as well for purely consumption potatoes. The current area is 2.4% smaller than the five-year average, but still larger than what was planted in 2023. 2 million tonnes less Last harvest year the Germans lifted 13.87 million tonnes of potatoes, a record amount. The yield per hectare of 45.96 tonnes was also extremely high. 2026 is a very different story. Based on the five-year average of 43.77 tonnes/ha, this comes to 11.73 million tonnes. A drop of 2.14 million tonnes compared with '25. It is highly uncertain whether this will be achieved. If we look at the dry years 2022 and 2018, yields were much lower. In 2018 they were 40.1 tonnes and 35.38 tonnes. The current European trial digging figures show a picture that closely matches 2018, or is just above it. If you calculate with the 2018 yield, you end up at 9.48 million tonnes of potatoes, which means the lowest volume since 2018. Back then 8.92 million tonnes were lifted. Drought varies The current situation is not completely comparable with eight years ago. Of the EU-4 countries, Germany is still in the best position. It is dry in large parts of the country, but not everywhere. Especially the north and parts of eastern Germany have had sufficient moisture this summer. The potato crops are therefore varying. There are green plots to be found, but also many fields where the crops have burned off. In the areas bordering the Netherlands it is very dry. And it is precisely there that most potatoes are grown. The acreage has shrunk considerably here. In Lower Saxony farmers planted 10% less according to Destatis. This concerns 125,700 hectares planted. In North Rhine-Westphalia it is almost 13% reduction and the area comes to 41,500 hectares. In Bavaria there was also a 10% decrease in area. The state comes to 37,000 hectares. The largest decline is for Saxony-Anhalt, with a 15.5% reduction. Prices continue to rise Last week Reka-Rheinland quoted an average of €22 per 100 kilos for the new harvest. Zorba was two euros above that and Innovator did €26. In practice, according to insiders, amounts of €30 are already being paid for top-quality fries potatoes. The German factories are switching fully to the new harvest this week, but are still taking it easy. The market could be described as quiet at the beginning of August, but the seriousness of the situation has now become clear to everyone. Meanwhile, the country is preparing for a new heatwave with temperatures up to almost 40 degrees. Just like in the Netherlands, the mercury will rise again at the end of this week. Afterwards it will become much cooler and there will also be meaningful rain. How much exactly, the weather models do not agree on. This can vary greatly regionally. Especially in southern Germany, extreme rainfall with even flooding is expected. Whether that makes a difference for the potatoes remains to be seen. The dried-out crops have little to no potential left. Rain can actually cause quality problems there and encourage secondary growth or growth cracks, as was also clearly noticeable in 2018.