Attacks slow Ukrainian grain exports

Wheat on the Matif did not react to it yesterday, but concerns about the availability of grain from the Black Sea region are increasing. The Ukrainian ministry has sharply lowered the export outlook. Russia's attacks on the ports, including those near Odessa, play an important role in this. In the US, the winter wheat harvest is well advanced, as the new Crop Progress report shows. The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €5.25 lower at €217.75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed ¾ cent higher at $6.40½ per bushel. Corn took a small step back with ¾ cent to $4.38¼ per bushel. Soybeans gained 1¼ cent, bringing them to $11.57¾ per bushel. The availability of wheat from the Black Sea region remains a sensitive issue. If we look at the price on the Matif, you would not think so, but the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has sharply lowered the export outlook for grain in the current 2026/27 season. Earlier the ministry expected exports of 43 million tonnes. That has now been lowered to 38 to 40 million tonnes. The reason behind the reduction is easy to guess. Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukrainian ports and storage and transshipment facilities are affecting the physical availability of grain for export. This season there could be a shortage of grain storage capacity of up to 11 million tonnes, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture calculated. Market agency APK-Inform has raised its wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine by 200,000 tonnes to 22.6 million tonnes. The export forecast has been sharply lowered by the agency from 15.3 million tonnes in the previous estimate to 13.5 million tonnes. Few alternatives Due to the problems with exports by sea, both Ukraine and Russia are focusing on increasing the share of grain that can be transported by rail. Costs for transporting grain by train are higher than by ship. According to various analysts, it is at least as important that capacity is lower. It provides some relief, but it is certainly not a full alternative to exports by sea. Market participants are also keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East. Iran has substantial demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, such as tolls for ships that want to pass through the strait and reparations for the American attacks on the country. The American president considers that unacceptable and wants to increase the economic pressure on Iran further. Winter wheat in the US almost in In the US, the winter wheat harvest is well underway. According to this week's Crop Progress report, 91% of the area has been harvested. That is in line with the five-year average. The harvest is slightly ahead of last season, when 89% had been threshed by this week. In Montana, most of the wheat still needs to be harvested. There, half has been threshed this week. The spring wheat in the US is losing ground due to the dry and warm weather on the northern prairies. 51% of the area received a good or excellent rating from the USDA this week. Last week that was still 55%. Meanwhile, the spring wheat harvest is progressing well. 24% of the area has now been harvested, compared with 19% in the five-year average and 14% this week last year. The condition of corn in the US remained unchanged this week compared with last week. 61% of the area is rated good or excellent, the USDA writes in the Crop Progress report. This week last year, that was 72%. Soybeans have declined slightly. 62% of the area gets a good or excellent rating, compared with 63% last week and 68% this week last year. In trade, a cautious guess is also being made about the USDA's Wasde report, which will be released Wednesday evening Dutch time. A Reuters poll shows that participants expect both the wheat and corn harvests in the US to be revised downward.