Modest price gains at GDT Event 409 amid higher volumes

Event 409, the fifth GDT event of the 2026/27 milk season, recorded a gain of 0.1%, following a 1.5% increase in the previous event. However, the actual Average Winning Price declined from $3,815 per ton in Event 408 to $3,778 per ton, a decrease of 0.97%.Since the previous GDT event, market signals had been predominantly negative. Nevertheless, Event 409 developed contrary to expectations despite a 50% increase in offered volumes. While the GDT result was marginally positive, SGX futures for both the C2 and “All contracts” methodologies had been indicating price declines.New Zealand's offered volume increased by 51.62% to 37,347 tons.Year-to-date through June, New Zealand's milk production has increased by 5.37%, equivalent to an additional 468 million kilo. Total production now stands at 9.186 billion kilo.Event results PRICE INDEX DOWN +1,5%, AWP $ 3,815 NZ Supply AMF DOWN -0,8%, AWP $ 6,367 ↓ BUTTER DOWN -2,3%, AWP $ 5,225 ↓ Butter Milk Powder DOWN -2,8%, awp $ 3,966 ↓ Cheddar UP + 3,8%, AWP 3,723 ↑ SMP UP +1,2%, AWP $ 3,261 ↑ WMP UP +0,2%, AWP $ 3,483 ↑ European and US Supply Butter (Solarec) Down -3.01%./ $ 4,607 (average price) ↑ AMF (Valley Milk USA) N.A./$ 4,528 ↔ Mozzarella UP +1,0% AWP $ 3.992 ↑ Lactose UP 4,1%/ AWP US $ 1,780 (Arla + Fonterra USA) ↑ SMP W-Europe, Arla, UP +4,94%, AWP $ 3.272,50 (average price) ↑ SMP W-Europe, DMK, N.S./ AWP N.S. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, UP +4,02%, AWP $ 3,363/mt (average price) ↑ SMP USA n.a. / AWP $3,165 ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec UP 3,70% . AWP $ 4.065 (average price) ↑ AMF declined by 0.8%, with the largest decrease recorded in C4. The butterfat value in AMF stands at $6,399 per ton on a 100% fat basis.Butter fell by 2.3%. The butterfat value in butter is $6,333 per ton on a 100% fat basis. The difference in butterfat value between butter and AMF has widened to $65 per ton in favour of AMF. This is the second consecutive event in which AMF has held this premium, a rare occurrence in recent years.Cheddar increased by 3.8%, recovering after declines in the previous two events.SMP rose by 1.2%, with the largest increase recorded in C4 (+5.9%).WMP edged up by 0.2%, with the strongest gain in C1 (+2.1%).A significant spread between front-month and later-dated contracts was observed, particularly in AMF. NZ front deferred Last vs front AMF 6660 6190 -7.06% BUTTER 5269 5270 0.02% CHEDDAR 3720 3815 2.55% SMP 3250 3250 0.00% WMP 3495 3460 -1.00% European and US SupplyAll non-New Zealand prices increased or remained unchanged, except for products that were not offered during this event. On the day of the GDT auction, the CME spot session saw US SMP settle at $3,601 per ton, representing a strong result.Although SGX had indicated a decline that did not materialise at this GDT event, the market responded with mixed movements in the days following the auction, with only butter (C2–C6) quotations moving lower. WMP 22/07/2026 05/08/2026 ∆ ∆% Aug 3460 3470 10 0.29% Sept 3500 3545 45 1.29% Oct 3560 3600 40 1.12% Nov 3610 3660 50 1.39% Dec 3635 3705 70 1.93% Jan 3670 3760 90 2.45% SMP Aug 3175 3240 65 2.05% Sept 3180 3305 125 3.93% Oct 3275 3355 80 2.44% Nov 3275 3370 95 2.90% Dec 3295 3395 100 3.03% Jan 3330 3445 115 3.45% AMF Aug 6090 6515 425 6.98% Sept 5910 6225 315 5.33% Oct 5935 6095 160 2.70% Nov 5855 6055 200 3.42% Dec 5855 5925 70 1.20% Jan 5795 6000 205 3.54% BUTTER Aug 5120 5195 75 1.46% Sept 5140 5000 -140 -2.72% Oct 5115 4900 -215 -4.20% Nov 5015 4900 -115 -2.29% Dec 5010 4900 -110 -2.20% Jan 5145 4850 -295 -5.73% Average prices C1-C6 22/07/26 05/08/26 ∆ ∆% WMP $3,573 $3,623 $50 1.40% SMP $3,255 $3,352 $97 2.98% AMF $5,907 $6,136 $229 3.88% BUTTER $5,091 $4,958 -$133 -2.61% The predominantly positive response on SGX reflects the GDT outcome and is consistent with the current market sentiment. After six months of the calendar year, New Zealand is already ahead by 468 million kilo of milk production compared with the same period in 2025. With Event 409, Fonterra has continued the new season with a negative theoretical GDT revenue result. Up to and including Event 409, the current season has generated a theoretical revenue decline of 2.16%, equivalent to US$9.39 million, compared with the average prices achieved during the 2025/26 season.