Chinese pig herd declines, impact remains limited

The Chinese pig price has recovered by almost 18% since its low in April. Yet there is still no sign of a real turnaround. The price increase is mainly caused by a temporarily smaller supply of pigs ready for slaughter. This is however still hardly reflected in the available meat volume. The most recent Chinese pig quotation stands at 11.50 yuan per kilo live weight. The price rose by 0.15 yuan, or 1.3%, in the week to 14 July. A week earlier the quotation still rose by 0.87 yuan. Between 30 June and 14 July, the Chinese pig price therefore rose by almost 10%. The difference compared with the low point this spring is even greater. On 14 April, the quotation stood at only 9.75 yuan per kilo. Since then, the price has risen by 1.75 yuan, a recovery of almost 18%. Converted at the ECB reference rate of 14 July, the most recent quotation comes to approximately €1.49 per kilo live weight. At the low point in April, this was about €1.26 per kilo. Yet prices are still historically low. In the same week last year, the Chinese quotation stood at 14.99 yuan per kilo. The current price is 3.49 yuan, or more than 23%, below that. Supply keeps the price afloatThe recovery is mainly the result of changes on the supply side. After months of price declines and rising losses, pig farmers in the spring sent away large numbers of heavy pigs. In doing so, they tried to prevent further losses and extra feed costs. Because of those accelerated deliveries, the available number of heavy slaughter pigs decreased. At the same time, large pig companies reduced their deliveries and smaller holders became less willing to sell animals immediately after the first price increase. Heavy rainfall also caused transport problems for pigs in various production regions. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses limited their slaughter volume to support the price of half carcasses. Because of that combination, less meat became available on the free market in a short time. The increase is therefore mainly the result of a much tighter supply than the exceptionally abundant supply in the spring. Failing policy is still taking hold In the previous interim update, Chinese production policy seemed to have hardly any effect. Since early 2024, the government had tried to reduce the sow herd from about 41 million to 39 million animals. By the end of 2025, however, China still had 39.61 million sows. The reduction therefore proceeded much more slowly than Beijing had intended. That has now changed. At the end of the first quarter, the Chinese sow herd still consisted of 39.04 million animals. Three months later, 37.80 million remained. Compared with the end of 2025, the sow herd shrank by 1.81 million animals in six months, a decrease of almost 4.6%. This brings China close to the current target of 37.5 million sows. This most recent reduction is also an acknowledgment that the old norm was still too high. Chinese pig companies have become much more productive in recent years. They produce more piglets per sow, have lower mortality and deliver more meat per animal. As a result, the same amount of pork can be produced with a smaller sow herd. In addition, continued losses, rather than the decree, are forcing companies to intervene more quickly. Weaker sows are being removed, expansion plans are being delayed and producers are becoming more cautious about placing new animals. What the government could not achieve for a long time with regulations and guidelines now seems to be being enforced by the low market price after all. Production nevertheless continues to rise The smaller sow herd has not yet led to less pork. In the first half of 2026, China produced 31.19 million tons of pork. That is 990,000 tons, or 3.3%, more than in the same period last year. The number of slaughters also increased. In the first six months of the year, 372.46 million pigs were slaughtered, 6.27 million more than a year earlier. That amounts to an increase of 1.7%. By the end of the second quarter, China also still had 424.91 million pigs. That was slightly more than in June 2025. Because meat production grew faster than the number of slaughters, average meat yield per slaughtered pig also increased. Converted, around 83.7 kilos of pork were produced per slaughtered animal in the first half of this year. A year earlier, this was about 82.5 kilos. This points to higher slaughter weights, better technical efficiency, or a combination of both. However, the growth rate is starting to slow. In the first quarter, Chinese pork production still rose by 4.2% and the number of slaughters increased by 2.8%. Over the full first half of the year, these growth rates were 3.3% and 1.7% respectively. Production is therefore still growing slightly, which means price increases in the country remain limited for now.