Global pig market hardly improves

The global pig market is still in troubled waters. Not only in Europe, but also in China and Brazil, prices are at a low level. Especially the persistently weak Chinese import demand is forcing major exporters to look more and more for alternative sales markets. The European pig market remains under pressure; especially in Northern Europe, sales are difficult. In Germany, much of the earlier recovery has now disappeared again. The VEZG quotation rose in the spring to an average of €1.70 per kilo slaughter weight in April. By the end of July, however, the quotation had fallen again to €1.40. The Spanish market remains an important source of uncertainty for the European market in particular. In Catalonia, dozens of new outbreaks of African swine fever among wild boar are recorded every month. By the end of July, there were 65 infection clusters and 373 wild boar tested positive in thirteen municipalities. As a result, Spanish slaughterhouses continue to export less meat to certain third countries and must place more product within Europe or on other export markets. That increases competition with suppliers from Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and France. In addition, European supply is not yet declining convincingly. In the first four months of 2026, production in the European Union was 2.2% higher than a year earlier. The number of animals slaughtered increased by 1.7%. This means that the weak price level is caused not only by disappointing exports, but also by relatively ample production within Europe. Chinese market remains weak One of the main reasons for both European and global price pressure also remains the extremely weak Chinese pig market. By the end of July, the official Chinese market price for live pigs stood at an average of ¥10.40 per kilo. Converted, that is about €1.34 per kilo. The price was therefore 5.5% lower than in mid-July. So there is still no convincing bottom in sight. The low price is mainly the result of a persistently ample domestic supply. In the first half of 2026, Chinese pork production increased by 3.3%. The number of pigs slaughtered rose by 1.7% to more than 372 million animals, while the total pig herd at the end of June, at almost 425 million animals, was about the same as a year earlier. Despite long-term losses, China has still not succeeded in reducing the pig herd. In addition, many large Chinese pig farms have become more efficient in recent years. As a result, production can remain high even when the number of sows is reduced. Partly because of this, the intended size of the sow herd has once again been revised downward. The Chinese government is now trying to further curb production to about 37.5 million animals. A few years ago, the quota was still 41 million pigs, but it is now clear that the initial reduction to 39 million pigs is not making enough of a difference. Meanwhile, consumer demand remains vulnerable. Economic growth has been significantly lower since the coronavirus pandemic than before, and as a result consumers are more often choosing cheaper protein sources, including poultry meat. This combination makes the export outlook to China exceptionally weak. The US Department of Agriculture expects Chinese pork imports to fall by about 16% in 2026. For European exporters, Chinese anti-dumping duties further complicate access to the market. China is therefore increasingly disappearing as a driver of world trade. Growth in the Brazilian pig market continues to cause pressure Domestic pig prices in Brazil are also under heavy pressure. In Santa Catarina, one of the country's main production regions, the price for live pigs at the beginning of August was about R$4.70 per kilo. Converted, that is about €0.80 per kilo. Prices in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul were also around this level. The low Brazilian price is not the result of weaker exports. On the contrary, foreign sales are developing strongly. In the first half of 2026, Brazil exported about 794,000 tons of pork, 10% more than a year earlier. Export revenues rose by almost 8% to about $1.86 billion. The pressure mainly comes from the supply side. The Brazilian industry association ABPA expects production to grow by about 5% in 2026 to 5.87 million tons. Exports may also increase by almost 6%, but at the same time the amount of meat available for the Brazilian domestic market is expected to rise by 4.6%. For Europe, this is a very unfavorable development, as the additional volumes on the European market can therefore only be sold at bottom prices on the world market. US forms exception The United States is for now the only exception to the weak global price trend. The Iowa/Minnesota quotation was about $99.01 per hundred US pounds carcass weight at the beginning of August. That amounts to about $2.18, or about €1.89, per kilo. This means the US price is clearly above that in Europe and Brazil. The firm price is partly supported by a tight sow herd. On 1 June, the United States had about 5.88 million breeding pigs, 1% fewer than a year earlier. The total number of pigs for slaughter was slightly larger. In addition, the number of piglets per litter increased. The US sector is therefore producing more efficiently, meaning that a smaller sow herd does not automatically lead to lower pork production. Somewhat surprisingly, the high price level has so far hardly harmed US exports. In the first four months of 2026, total exports increased by about 4%. Mexico bought 5% more American pork and exports to Japan rose by 17%. The Philippines also bought more meat. This means that the price difference between the United States and Europe has not yet led to a broad shift in trade flows. Japan in fact imported more from the United States and Brazil, while European exports to the country declined. Existing trade relations, product specifications, supply reliability and long-term contracts still weigh more heavily for importers than the price difference alone.