Mixed market sentiment ahead of GDT event 409

Since the previous Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has been mixed. The US and New Zealand have shown greater optimism than the EU. Event 409 may provide further direction.Compared with the winning prices from the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX futures indicate a likely decline if the GDT results align with futures pricing under either the “all contracts” or “C2 contracts” method.Key Market InsightsNew Zealand milk production: June production increased by 4.58%, or 12 million kilo. Year-to-date production through June was up 5.37%, or 468 million kilo.SGX dairy futures: Sentiment in the New Zealand dairy futures market has been mixed in recent weeks.Volumes and products: Volumes increased by 51.62%, primarily due to seasonal factors.Exports: Year-to-date exports through June 2026 increased by 16.48%, equivalent to 1.2 billion kilo of liquid milk equivalent (LME).Expected price impact: If the results of Event 409 align with SGX futures, the GDT Price Index could decline by 3.40% under the “C2” method and by 2.00% under the “all contracts” method.Volume composition: Whole milk powder (WMP) dominates the offerings for Event 409, accounting for 59% of the total volume. Price movements in this category will significantly influence both overall market sentiment and the index. On the SGX futures market, WMP prices have mostly increased since the previous GDT event.Global outlook: Dairy futures traded on the EU exchange have shown weaker sentiment.Futures performance: Since the previous GDT event, average butter and anhydrous milk fat (AMF) futures for contracts C1–C6 have traded below the average winning prices recorded in Event 408. Powder futures, however, have shown some improvement. AMF -4.23% SMP 3.30% Butter -4.77% WMP 3.51% In summary, futures markets point to a cautiously optimistic outlook for GDT Event 409. However, strong growth in global milk production appears to have weakened the market firmness observed earlier this year.