June’s milk production growth slows down in Germany, France, and Poland

Milk production across France, Germany, and Poland remained above year-earlier levels in June, although growth continued to moderate following the strong expansion seen earlier in the year. While higher milk volumes supported milk production of solids in France and Germany, lower levels of fat and protein in Polish milk limited gains in solids output. At the same time, milk prices remained under pressure across the region, while late-June heatwaves began to weigh on weekly milk collections, pointing to a further slowdown in production growth during the summer months.Milk production in France totaled 2.03 million tons in June, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous year, marking a recovery from the 1.4% contraction observed in May. At the same time, organic milk collections recorded a third consecutive month of contraction, declining by 7.1% year-over-year to 93,929 tons.The nutritional composition of milk remained positive, although growth slowed compared to the previous month. While the protein content remained stable at 3.21%, the fat content increased by 0.8% year-over-year to 3.96%. As a result, milk solids (MS) production outpaced liquid milk production, rising by 1.6% to 145,645 tons.Following the strong growth recorded in the first quarter, expansion moderated significantly in the second quarter, slowing overall output growth during the first half of the year. Year-to-date, French milk production reached 12.74 million tons, up 3.2% compared to the previous year. Growth was even stronger in MS production, which increased by 4.0% to 946,922 tons, supported by improvements in milk composition. Meanwhile, organic milk collections declined by 2.3% to 595,911 tons, as sharp contractions during the second quarter weighed on cumulative performance.The overall surplus of milk in France and across the region continued to weigh on prices. Despite a slight improvement compared to May, milk prices declined by 0.4% year-over-year to an average of €49.62 per 100 kg in June.GermanyGermany's milk production remained on an expansionary trend in June, increasing by 5.8% year-over-year to 2.86 million tons. That said, production growth has decelerated slightly over the past two months. The organic sector has followed a similar trend since the beginning of the year, although it continued to outperform conventional collections, growing by 6.2% to 136,326 tons.In contrast to the strong growth in milk production, the fat and protein content of the milk declined. Fat content fell by 0.5% year-over-year to 3.96% in June, while protein content decreased by 0.6% to 3.40%. As a result, MS production increased at a more moderate pace, rising by 5.3% to 210,555 tons.Thanks to Germany's strong performance during the first half of the year, cumulative milk production reached 17.25 million tons by June, up 6.5% compared to the previous year. This growth was supported by sustained expansion throughout the period, although growth moderated slightly in the second quarter. Despite the decline in milk composition in June, improvements recorded during previous months resulted in a 6.7% increase in cumulative MS production. Organic milk collections also performed strongly, increasing by 7.6% year-over-year to 825,553 tons.Milk prices also remained under pressure, falling by 25.6% year-over-year to €40.08 per 100 kg in June and remaining relatively stable at this lower level. Organic milk prices also stayed subdued, declining by 1.4% year-over-year to €63.62 per 100 kg in June after several months of gradual decreases.PolandPolish milk production increased by 2.6% year-over-year to 1.19 million tons in June. Similar to Germany, production growth moderated compared to May (+3.8%). The organic sector remains comparatively small, with output declining by 23.6% year-over-year to 1,063 tons, well below the levels recorded in Germany and France.Unlike in other European countries, the nutritional composition of milk in Poland has deteriorated throughout 2026, weighing on overall MS availability. Fat content declined by 1.0% year-over-year to 3.96%, while protein content fell by 2.1% to 3.31%. As a result, MS production grew by a more modest 1.1%, reaching 86,372 tons in June.By June, cumulative milk production in Poland reached 7.18 million tons, a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year. Although this growth was lower than in France and Germany, Poland had a comparatively higher production baseline throughout the first half of 2025. Nevertheless, the weaker nutritional composition of milk during 2026 limited MS growth, which increased by 2.5% to 535,607 tons.Milk prices stood between those of France and Germany during June, averaging €41.19 per 100 kg, down 22.5% year-over-year. That said, market conditions have been more challenging, as raw milk prices have remained under pressure throughout the year, with the year-over-year gap widening month after month.Weather conditions and pricing point to further moderationThe emergence of a heatwave in late June marked the start of summer across the EU, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in several countries, including Germany and France. These extreme temperatures had a notable impact on weekly milk collections. France recorded a 5.4% year-over-year decline in its weekly collection index during the final week of June. Although less severe, collections also declined during the first three weeks of July, averaging a 1.6% year-over-year decrease. Germany likewise experienced weaker collections over the same period, although volumes remained above the previous year's levels. As collections weaken due to elevated temperatures, lower milk prices are reducing the economic incentive to continue expanding production. To support producers under these challenging conditions, several major processors have already announced price increases for August. Nevertheless, July production figures are still likely to reflect a contraction in milk output.