Drought is hitting British potato crops hard

The United Kingdom may be known for its rain, but this year hardly any has fallen. The grain harvest has never been this early and the impact on a crop such as potatoes is great. Even with frequent irrigation, the crops are struggling. Quality is also a concern. Even in Wales, where it normally rains regularly, a state of drought has now officially been declared. The region has just experienced its driest July in 190 years. Scotland is meanwhile warning of extremely low water levels in its rivers. Water levels are also extremely low in eastern England. In the east and south the situation is most dire, while these are the major arable farming areas. Yet in many places the government has still not officially declared drought. Seven counties have been dealing with a so called hosepipe ban since 17 July, under which it is forbidden to water your garden or wash your car. Dry since spring Temperatures far above 30 degrees and the absence of significant rainfall for months have also had a major impact on potato crops. Especially in eastern England, most growers can irrigate, but this is becoming increasingly difficult. Smaller rivers are no longer being fed and are running dry. Water reservoirs are running empty after months of irrigation, especially for smaller growers. Irrigation bans are also being declared locally. In March we had just 18 millimeters of rain and in April none, says a potato grower farming in the polder area The Fens. Many crops hardly closed the field and where the reel stops nothing grows. Many potato crops are lagging in sizing this season. The Fens is England's best growing area, with humus rich clay soils. Further west and north in England the situation is even more dire and irrigation is often not even possible. Salinisation is an increasing problem there. Industry organisation GB Potatoes is now sounding the alarm. Last spring the country as a whole received 65% of the average amount of rainfall and in July that was only 34%. The organisation calls sufficient water crucial for the success of the crop. Smaller area The Ministry of Agriculture Defra released the final figures for 2025 this month. According to them, the total area amounted to 116,641 hectares. Insiders do not agree. They estimate the area at less than 110,000 hectares. This year it is estimated to have shrunk by more than 5%, to just above 100,000 hectares. Official figures for 2026 are not available. According to Defra the yield for 2025 is 5.54 million tons gross, with 466,000 tons of waste. Net, the harvest comes to 5 million tons and that is not much different from what insiders are calculating. It means a harvest that was 8.5% larger than in 2024. Despite the larger harvest, prices for old potatoes in the UK have also risen. The new harvest has been on the market for some time, but this mainly concerns ware potatoes grown under contract for retail. On the free market for ware potatoes, with prices between €8.30 and €14 per 100 kilos, it is still not much to write home about at the end of July. It is different for potatoes that can be used for fresh fries. Among others Agria and Sagitta are traded for €35 to €38, sorted and bagged. These find their way to fish & chips shops. Fine sizing With both new fries and chip potatoes the problem is that the new harvest is turning out fine due to the drought. Underwater weights are usually good, but the share of 65 mm and up is much too low. Growers report that differences are large between them, even within fields. That has everything to do with a heterogeneous crop stand and varying tuber set this spring. Agria is suffering from regrowth, here in The Fens. Due to the hot weather, regrowth occurs in fields, especially with Agria. Despite frequent irrigation, it is still regularly found. Insiders expect a split market to emerge this year. On the one hand for coarse potatoes, of good quality, where crops were able to have sufficient moisture. On the other hand for lots that suffer from regrowth or that are fine sized and for which buyers want to pay lower amounts. For fish & chips, but also baked potatoes, buyers are looking for long, coarse potatoes. There will be far fewer of those this year. Need Thanks to the excellent yields last season, the UK was able to meet more than 70% of its own potato needs (excluding fries). A year earlier that was still 67.5%. It is clear that harvest year 2026 will turn out much lower. It remains persistently warm and dry. The country will have to rely more on mainland Europe, while buyers here are also expected to need all potatoes. That creates additional market dynamics, which we in the EU-4 will feel the effects of.